Elon Musk's ineligibility under the natural-born citizen clause of the U.S. Constitution remains the primary structural barrier cited by traders, as he was born in South Africa and naturalized in 2002. Musk has consistently ruled out a presidential bid in public statements, instead channeling resources into America PAC spending on Republican midterm efforts and prior advisory work on government efficiency initiatives. Recent activity shows no signals of 2028 candidacy exploration, with focus directed toward business operations and targeted political funding. The 96.7% implied probability for no announcement before 2027 reflects this sustained pattern. An abrupt reversal in priorities or a ratified constitutional amendment could still shift the outlook within the remaining window.