Iran's continued engagement with the IAEA safeguards regime and participation in the 2026 NPT Review Conference, despite earlier parliamentary proposals and official threats tied to U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites in early 2026, underpins the 91.6% trader consensus against withdrawal before 2027. Proposed legislation in Iran's Majlis has not advanced to formal notification under Article X of the treaty, and recent individual calls for exit remain rhetorical amid fragile ceasefire talks and enrichment concerns. Withdrawal would require explicit written notice to the UN and would isolate Iran from nonproliferation frameworks and nuclear suppliers, a step historical precedent like North Korea's 2003 exit shows carries major procedural and diplomatic costs that Tehran has so far avoided. Ongoing bilateral negotiations and IAEA reporting further signal preference for leverage over departure before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
8% szansa
$359,120 Wol.
$359,120 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
8% szansa
$359,120 Wol.
$359,120 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran's continued engagement with the IAEA safeguards regime and participation in the 2026 NPT Review Conference, despite earlier parliamentary proposals and official threats tied to U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites in early 2026, underpins the 91.6% trader consensus against withdrawal before 2027. Proposed legislation in Iran's Majlis has not advanced to formal notification under Article X of the treaty, and recent individual calls for exit remain rhetorical amid fragile ceasefire talks and enrichment concerns. Withdrawal would require explicit written notice to the UN and would isolate Iran from nonproliferation frameworks and nuclear suppliers, a step historical precedent like North Korea's 2003 exit shows carries major procedural and diplomatic costs that Tehran has so far avoided. Ongoing bilateral negotiations and IAEA reporting further signal preference for leverage over departure before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Wolumen
$359,120Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran's continued engagement with the IAEA safeguards regime and participation in the 2026 NPT Review Conference, despite earlier parliamentary proposals and official threats tied to U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites in early 2026, underpins the 91.6% trader consensus against withdrawal before 2027. Proposed legislation in Iran's Majlis has not advanced to formal notification under Article X of the treaty, and recent individual calls for exit remain rhetorical amid fragile ceasefire talks and enrichment concerns. Withdrawal would require explicit written notice to the UN and would isolate Iran from nonproliferation frameworks and nuclear suppliers, a step historical precedent like North Korea's 2003 exit shows carries major procedural and diplomatic costs that Tehran has so far avoided. Ongoing bilateral negotiations and IAEA reporting further signal preference for leverage over departure before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$359,120Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's continued engagement with the IAEA safeguards regime and participation in the 2026 NPT Review Conference, despite earlier parliamentary proposals and official threats tied to U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites in early 2026, underpins the 91.6% trader consensus against withdrawal before 2027. Proposed legislation in Iran's Majlis has not advanced to formal notification under Article X of the treaty, and recent individual calls for exit remain rhetorical amid fragile ceasefire talks and enrichment concerns. Withdrawal would require explicit written notice to the UN and would isolate Iran from nonproliferation frameworks and nuclear suppliers, a step historical precedent like North Korea's 2003 exit shows carries major procedural and diplomatic costs that Tehran has so far avoided. Ongoing bilateral negotiations and IAEA reporting further signal preference for leverage over departure before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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