Lula's third-term efforts to fill the STF vacancy created by Justice Luís Roberto Barroso's October 2025 retirement center on Senate confirmation dynamics and pre-electoral positioning ahead of Brazil's October 2026 general vote. His initial November 2025 nomination of Attorney General Jorge Messias was formally transmitted in early April 2026 but rejected 42-34 on April 29—the first such defeat in over 130 years—amid opposition concerns over judicial power and Senate influence. Lula has publicly reaffirmed plans to resubmit Messias or another candidate, potentially a woman, with Senate rules permitting a new indication outside the same legislative session. Key variables include coalition negotiations with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, vote thresholds requiring at least 41 approvals, and timing pressures before the campaign intensifies. These factors shape trader assessments of announcement likelihood by any near-term deadline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$15,592 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
June 30
5%
September 30
42%
December 31
70%
$15,592 Wol.
June 30
$11,179 Wol.
5%
September 30
$1,502 Wol.
42%
December 31
$2,912 Wol.
70%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lula's third-term efforts to fill the STF vacancy created by Justice Luís Roberto Barroso's October 2025 retirement center on Senate confirmation dynamics and pre-electoral positioning ahead of Brazil's October 2026 general vote. His initial November 2025 nomination of Attorney General Jorge Messias was formally transmitted in early April 2026 but rejected 42-34 on April 29—the first such defeat in over 130 years—amid opposition concerns over judicial power and Senate influence. Lula has publicly reaffirmed plans to resubmit Messias or another candidate, potentially a woman, with Senate rules permitting a new indication outside the same legislative session. Key variables include coalition negotiations with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, vote thresholds requiring at least 41 approvals, and timing pressures before the campaign intensifies. These factors shape trader assessments of announcement likelihood by any near-term deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
Wolumen
$15,592Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lula's third-term efforts to fill the STF vacancy created by Justice Luís Roberto Barroso's October 2025 retirement center on Senate confirmation dynamics and pre-electoral positioning ahead of Brazil's October 2026 general vote. His initial November 2025 nomination of Attorney General Jorge Messias was formally transmitted in early April 2026 but rejected 42-34 on April 29—the first such defeat in over 130 years—amid opposition concerns over judicial power and Senate influence. Lula has publicly reaffirmed plans to resubmit Messias or another candidate, potentially a woman, with Senate rules permitting a new indication outside the same legislative session. Key variables include coalition negotiations with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, vote thresholds requiring at least 41 approvals, and timing pressures before the campaign intensifies. These factors shape trader assessments of announcement likelihood by any near-term deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$15,592Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Lula's third-term efforts to fill the STF vacancy created by Justice Luís Roberto Barroso's October 2025 retirement center on Senate confirmation dynamics and pre-electoral positioning ahead of Brazil's October 2026 general vote. His initial November 2025 nomination of Attorney General Jorge Messias was formally transmitted in early April 2026 but rejected 42-34 on April 29—the first such defeat in over 130 years—amid opposition concerns over judicial power and Senate influence. Lula has publicly reaffirmed plans to resubmit Messias or another candidate, potentially a woman, with Senate rules permitting a new indication outside the same legislative session. Key variables include coalition negotiations with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, vote thresholds requiring at least 41 approvals, and timing pressures before the campaign intensifies. These factors shape trader assessments of announcement likelihood by any near-term deadline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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