The strong trader consensus that President Trump will remain in office through June 30 stems from the absence of any active impeachment proceedings, resignation signals, or invocation of the 25th Amendment in the current congressional session. With Republicans holding majorities in both chambers, the high bar for removal—requiring supermajority Senate support—remains structurally distant absent a sudden crisis or bipartisan shift. Historical patterns show few successful removals of sitting presidents, and no major legislative or judicial developments have altered this baseline since the start of the term. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include an unforeseen health event, a major scandal prompting party defections, or rapid changes in House leadership dynamics before the deadline.