Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward "No" at 57.5% implied probability for OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, driven by the April 2026 shutdown of its Sora app—a short-form video platform for AI-generated content—just months after launch amid user disengagement, deepfake safety concerns, and content moderation backlash. Early 2025 reports of an internal X-like prototype with ChatGPT image feeds and January biometric verification rumors sparked optimism, peaking Yes odds near 70% in early May, but persistent silence from OpenAI, alongside its May 12 pivot to the Deployment Company for enterprise AI scaling, signals deprioritization of consumer social platforms. With seven months left, key catalysts include developer conference announcements or embedded social features in upcoming GPT models, though historical product delays temper expectations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
$45,986 Wol.
$45,986 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$45,986 Wol.
$45,986 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward "No" at 57.5% implied probability for OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, driven by the April 2026 shutdown of its Sora app—a short-form video platform for AI-generated content—just months after launch amid user disengagement, deepfake safety concerns, and content moderation backlash. Early 2025 reports of an internal X-like prototype with ChatGPT image feeds and January biometric verification rumors sparked optimism, peaking Yes odds near 70% in early May, but persistent silence from OpenAI, alongside its May 12 pivot to the Deployment Company for enterprise AI scaling, signals deprioritization of consumer social platforms. With seven months left, key catalysts include developer conference announcements or embedded social features in upcoming GPT models, though historical product delays temper expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
Wolumen
$45,986Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward "No" at 57.5% implied probability for OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, driven by the April 2026 shutdown of its Sora app—a short-form video platform for AI-generated content—just months after launch amid user disengagement, deepfake safety concerns, and content moderation backlash. Early 2025 reports of an internal X-like prototype with ChatGPT image feeds and January biometric verification rumors sparked optimism, peaking Yes odds near 70% in early May, but persistent silence from OpenAI, alongside its May 12 pivot to the Deployment Company for enterprise AI scaling, signals deprioritization of consumer social platforms. With seven months left, key catalysts include developer conference announcements or embedded social features in upcoming GPT models, though historical product delays temper expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$45,986Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward "No" at 57.5% implied probability for OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, driven by the April 2026 shutdown of its Sora app—a short-form video platform for AI-generated content—just months after launch amid user disengagement, deepfake safety concerns, and content moderation backlash. Early 2025 reports of an internal X-like prototype with ChatGPT image feeds and January biometric verification rumors sparked optimism, peaking Yes odds near 70% in early May, but persistent silence from OpenAI, alongside its May 12 pivot to the Deployment Company for enterprise AI scaling, signals deprioritization of consumer social platforms. With seven months left, key catalysts include developer conference announcements or embedded social features in upcoming GPT models, though historical product delays temper expectations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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