OpenAI’s limited resources and strategic priorities underpin the 90% market-implied probability against a 2026 social network launch. Early 2026 reporting described a small internal team of fewer than ten people exploring a biometric-verified, humans-only platform using tools like iris scanning or Face ID, but the project stayed in conceptual stages with no timeline or public commitment. Resources have instead concentrated on core large language model development, GPT-6 Astra agents, ChatGPT Space collaboration features, and enterprise marketplace expansions announced at DevDay. A prior social experiment, the Sora AI-video app launched in late 2025, was discontinued by March 2026 amid falling engagement. Intense competition from established platforms and privacy hurdles around biometrics further reduce the odds of a full release before year-end.