Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 88% implied probability for "No" on Tesla launching unsupervised robotaxis in California by June 30, driven primarily by the absence of critical regulatory approvals from the California DMV and CPUC for driverless deployment. Despite Tesla's rapid unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) expansions to Austin, Dallas, and Houston in Texas—bypassing mapping-heavy rivals like Waymo—the Bay Area remains limited to supervised rides with safety drivers since April 2026 launch. Tesla reported zero autonomous test miles in California through 2025, falling short of the 50,000+ supervised miles typically required, with no driverless permit applications filed amid new DMV rules enabling AV ticketing from July 1. Cybercab testing sightings offer optimism, but traders anticipate delays beyond H1 2026 targets like Phoenix, prioritizing Texas scaling first.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?
$105,492 Wol.
$105,492 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
$105,492 Wol.
$105,492 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 88% implied probability for "No" on Tesla launching unsupervised robotaxis in California by June 30, driven primarily by the absence of critical regulatory approvals from the California DMV and CPUC for driverless deployment. Despite Tesla's rapid unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) expansions to Austin, Dallas, and Houston in Texas—bypassing mapping-heavy rivals like Waymo—the Bay Area remains limited to supervised rides with safety drivers since April 2026 launch. Tesla reported zero autonomous test miles in California through 2025, falling short of the 50,000+ supervised miles typically required, with no driverless permit applications filed amid new DMV rules enabling AV ticketing from July 1. Cybercab testing sightings offer optimism, but traders anticipate delays beyond H1 2026 targets like Phoenix, prioritizing Texas scaling first.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 12, 2025, 5:05 PM ET
Wolumen
$105,492Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 5:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 88% implied probability for "No" on Tesla launching unsupervised robotaxis in California by June 30, driven primarily by the absence of critical regulatory approvals from the California DMV and CPUC for driverless deployment. Despite Tesla's rapid unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) expansions to Austin, Dallas, and Houston in Texas—bypassing mapping-heavy rivals like Waymo—the Bay Area remains limited to supervised rides with safety drivers since April 2026 launch. Tesla reported zero autonomous test miles in California through 2025, falling short of the 50,000+ supervised miles typically required, with no driverless permit applications filed amid new DMV rules enabling AV ticketing from July 1. Cybercab testing sightings offer optimism, but traders anticipate delays beyond H1 2026 targets like Phoenix, prioritizing Texas scaling first.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$105,492Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 5:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 88% implied probability for "No" on Tesla launching unsupervised robotaxis in California by June 30, driven primarily by the absence of critical regulatory approvals from the California DMV and CPUC for driverless deployment. Despite Tesla's rapid unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) expansions to Austin, Dallas, and Houston in Texas—bypassing mapping-heavy rivals like Waymo—the Bay Area remains limited to supervised rides with safety drivers since April 2026 launch. Tesla reported zero autonomous test miles in California through 2025, falling short of the 50,000+ supervised miles typically required, with no driverless permit applications filed amid new DMV rules enabling AV ticketing from July 1. Cybercab testing sightings offer optimism, but traders anticipate delays beyond H1 2026 targets like Phoenix, prioritizing Texas scaling first.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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