Persistent hostility since the 1979 severance of ties, compounded by 2026 military exchanges, airstrikes on Iranian sites, and a fragile June memorandum of understanding that produced only temporary sanctions waivers and nuclear discussions without restoring formal diplomatic relations, underpins trader consensus against a US embassy reopening in Tehran this year. The United States continues to rely on its virtual embassy and Swiss protecting-power channel, with no announced plans or infrastructure steps toward physical resumption amid ongoing regional tensions and Level 4 travel advisories. Late-year breakthroughs in comprehensive nuclear or sanctions agreements could theoretically shift timelines, though structural barriers including mutual distrust and congressional oversight make such reversal improbable before December 31.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
5% szansa
$159,455 Wol.
$159,455 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% szansa
$159,455 Wol.
$159,455 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent hostility since the 1979 severance of ties, compounded by 2026 military exchanges, airstrikes on Iranian sites, and a fragile June memorandum of understanding that produced only temporary sanctions waivers and nuclear discussions without restoring formal diplomatic relations, underpins trader consensus against a US embassy reopening in Tehran this year. The United States continues to rely on its virtual embassy and Swiss protecting-power channel, with no announced plans or infrastructure steps toward physical resumption amid ongoing regional tensions and Level 4 travel advisories. Late-year breakthroughs in comprehensive nuclear or sanctions agreements could theoretically shift timelines, though structural barriers including mutual distrust and congressional oversight make such reversal improbable before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
Wolumen
$159,455Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent hostility since the 1979 severance of ties, compounded by 2026 military exchanges, airstrikes on Iranian sites, and a fragile June memorandum of understanding that produced only temporary sanctions waivers and nuclear discussions without restoring formal diplomatic relations, underpins trader consensus against a US embassy reopening in Tehran this year. The United States continues to rely on its virtual embassy and Swiss protecting-power channel, with no announced plans or infrastructure steps toward physical resumption amid ongoing regional tensions and Level 4 travel advisories. Late-year breakthroughs in comprehensive nuclear or sanctions agreements could theoretically shift timelines, though structural barriers including mutual distrust and congressional oversight make such reversal improbable before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$159,455Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Persistent hostility since the 1979 severance of ties, compounded by 2026 military exchanges, airstrikes on Iranian sites, and a fragile June memorandum of understanding that produced only temporary sanctions waivers and nuclear discussions without restoring formal diplomatic relations, underpins trader consensus against a US embassy reopening in Tehran this year. The United States continues to rely on its virtual embassy and Swiss protecting-power channel, with no announced plans or infrastructure steps toward physical resumption amid ongoing regional tensions and Level 4 travel advisories. Late-year breakthroughs in comprehensive nuclear or sanctions agreements could theoretically shift timelines, though structural barriers including mutual distrust and congressional oversight make such reversal improbable before December 31.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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