Recent national polling, including a New York Times/Siena survey and Marquette Law School results from early September, shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 7–13 points among likely voters. This environment, shaped by President Trump’s low approval ratings, voter concerns over the economy and inflation, and the typical midterm penalty for the president’s party, has concentrated trader consensus on Democratic popular vote margins in the 6–10% range. Redistricting changes that modestly favored Republicans earlier in the cycle and historical base rates for opposition gains provide some counterbalance, yet current polling averages and the compressed timeline to November 3 sustain the positioning of these bins as the leading outcomes in the market.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoIntercalares de 2026: Margem de Vitória do Voto Popular da Casa
Intercalares de 2026: Margem de Vitória do Voto Popular da Casa
Democratas 8-10% 28%
Democratas 6-8% 21%
Democratas 10-12% 20%
Democratas 4-6% 12%
$135,714 Vol.
$135,714 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratas 16%+
1%
Democratas 14-16%
2%
Democratas 12-14%
7%
Democratas 10-12%
20%
Democratas 8-10%
28%
Democratas 6-8%
21%
Democratas 4-6%
12%
Democratas 2-4%
6%
Democratas 0-2%
2%
Republicanos 0-2%
3%
Republicanos 2-4%
3%
Republicanos 4-6%
1%
Republicanos 6%+
1%
Democratas 8-10% 28%
Democratas 6-8% 21%
Democratas 10-12% 20%
Democratas 4-6% 12%
$135,714 Vol.
$135,714 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratas 16%+
$3,561 Vol.
1%
Democratas 14-16%
$3,412 Vol.
2%
Democratas 12-14%
$4,620 Vol.
7%
Democratas 10-12%
$8,975 Vol.
20%
Democratas 8-10%
$14,498 Vol.
28%
Democratas 6-8%
$15,674 Vol.
21%
Democratas 4-6%
$7,010 Vol.
12%
Democratas 2-4%
$15,637 Vol.
6%
Democratas 0-2%
$18,277 Vol.
2%
Republicanos 0-2%
$5,931 Vol.
3%
Republicanos 2-4%
$30,409 Vol.
3%
Republicanos 4-6%
$3,748 Vol.
1%
Republicanos 6%+
$3,962 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent national polling, including a New York Times/Siena survey and Marquette Law School results from early September, shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 7–13 points among likely voters. This environment, shaped by President Trump’s low approval ratings, voter concerns over the economy and inflation, and the typical midterm penalty for the president’s party, has concentrated trader consensus on Democratic popular vote margins in the 6–10% range. Redistricting changes that modestly favored Republicans earlier in the cycle and historical base rates for opposition gains provide some counterbalance, yet current polling averages and the compressed timeline to November 3 sustain the positioning of these bins as the leading outcomes in the market.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$135,714Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent national polling, including a New York Times/Siena survey and Marquette Law School results from early September, shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 7–13 points among likely voters. This environment, shaped by President Trump’s low approval ratings, voter concerns over the economy and inflation, and the typical midterm penalty for the president’s party, has concentrated trader consensus on Democratic popular vote margins in the 6–10% range. Redistricting changes that modestly favored Republicans earlier in the cycle and historical base rates for opposition gains provide some counterbalance, yet current polling averages and the compressed timeline to November 3 sustain the positioning of these bins as the leading outcomes in the market.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$135,714Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent national polling, including a New York Times/Siena survey and Marquette Law School results from early September, shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 7–13 points among likely voters. This environment, shaped by President Trump’s low approval ratings, voter concerns over the economy and inflation, and the typical midterm penalty for the president’s party, has concentrated trader consensus on Democratic popular vote margins in the 6–10% range. Redistricting changes that modestly favored Republicans earlier in the cycle and historical base rates for opposition gains provide some counterbalance, yet current polling averages and the compressed timeline to November 3 sustain the positioning of these bins as the leading outcomes in the market.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions