Recent generic congressional ballot polling shows Democrats holding a consistent 5-7 point national lead, with recent surveys from Marist, Ipsos, and Emerson reflecting margins in this range. These results align with the market's emphasis on Democratic edges of 8-10% and 10-12% as the clearest leading outcomes, alongside elevated pricing for "Other" due to remaining uncertainty six months before Election Day. Virginia's April redistricting approval has further tilted the map toward Democrats, while historical patterns of midterm losses for the president's party continue to shape trader assessments. Ongoing primaries and additional redistricting fights add volatility that keeps larger or Republican-leaning margins at lower prices.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoIntercalares de 2026: Margem de Vitória do Voto Popular da Casa
Intercalares de 2026: Margem de Vitória do Voto Popular da Casa
Democratas 8-10% 15%
Democratas 10-12% 13%
Republicanos 0-2% 9.6%
Republicanos 2-4% 9%
$34,656 Vol.
$34,656 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratas 16%+
3%
Democratas 14-16%
4%
Democratas 12-14%
4%
Democratas 10-12%
13%
Democratas 8-10%
15%
Democratas 6-8%
8%
Democratas 4-6%
7%
Democratas 2-4%
4%
Democratas 0-2%
5%
Republicanos 0-2%
10%
Republicanos 2-4%
9%
Republicanos 4-6%
2%
Republicanos 6%+
3%
Democratas 8-10% 15%
Democratas 10-12% 13%
Republicanos 0-2% 9.6%
Republicanos 2-4% 9%
$34,656 Vol.
$34,656 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratas 16%+
$804 Vol.
3%
Democratas 14-16%
$476 Vol.
4%
Democratas 12-14%
$462 Vol.
4%
Democratas 10-12%
$830 Vol.
13%
Democratas 8-10%
$1,555 Vol.
15%
Democratas 6-8%
$693 Vol.
8%
Democratas 4-6%
$258 Vol.
7%
Democratas 2-4%
$1,002 Vol.
4%
Democratas 0-2%
$869 Vol.
5%
Republicanos 0-2%
$864 Vol.
10%
Republicanos 2-4%
$25,856 Vol.
9%
Republicanos 4-6%
$230 Vol.
2%
Republicanos 6%+
$757 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic congressional ballot polling shows Democrats holding a consistent 5-7 point national lead, with recent surveys from Marist, Ipsos, and Emerson reflecting margins in this range. These results align with the market's emphasis on Democratic edges of 8-10% and 10-12% as the clearest leading outcomes, alongside elevated pricing for "Other" due to remaining uncertainty six months before Election Day. Virginia's April redistricting approval has further tilted the map toward Democrats, while historical patterns of midterm losses for the president's party continue to shape trader assessments. Ongoing primaries and additional redistricting fights add volatility that keeps larger or Republican-leaning margins at lower prices.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$34,656Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic congressional ballot polling shows Democrats holding a consistent 5-7 point national lead, with recent surveys from Marist, Ipsos, and Emerson reflecting margins in this range. These results align with the market's emphasis on Democratic edges of 8-10% and 10-12% as the clearest leading outcomes, alongside elevated pricing for "Other" due to remaining uncertainty six months before Election Day. Virginia's April redistricting approval has further tilted the map toward Democrats, while historical patterns of midterm losses for the president's party continue to shape trader assessments. Ongoing primaries and additional redistricting fights add volatility that keeps larger or Republican-leaning margins at lower prices.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$34,656Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent generic congressional ballot polling shows Democrats holding a consistent 5-7 point national lead, with recent surveys from Marist, Ipsos, and Emerson reflecting margins in this range. These results align with the market's emphasis on Democratic edges of 8-10% and 10-12% as the clearest leading outcomes, alongside elevated pricing for "Other" due to remaining uncertainty six months before Election Day. Virginia's April redistricting approval has further tilted the map toward Democrats, while historical patterns of midterm losses for the president's party continue to shape trader assessments. Ongoing primaries and additional redistricting fights add volatility that keeps larger or Republican-leaning margins at lower prices.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions