**Traders assign a 72.5% probability to “No” because a 0.01% margin in any federal or statewide 2026 midterm race remains statistically improbable even amid competitive battlegrounds.** Current forecasts from multiple models show a handful of Senate and House toss-ups in states such as Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Iowa, yet projected margins in these contests generally exceed 1–3 points based on polling averages and fundamentals. Historical data reinforces this view: the closest recent congressional results have ranged from roughly 0.09% (2024 House) to 0.78% (2022 Senate), with no cycle producing a statewide or federal outcome decided by one one-hundredth of a percent. With two months until November 3 voting, late shifts in turnout, third-party effects, or recount dynamics could narrow some races further, but structural factors—larger electorates in battleground states, established polling trends showing a Democratic-leaning generic ballot, and the absence of unusually volatile special circumstances—make an ultra-precise tie or sub-0.01% finish unlikely. Resolution hinges on certified final results meeting the exact threshold across any qualifying federal or statewide contest.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAlguma eleição intermediária federal ou estadual dos EUA estará dentro de 0,01%?
Alguma eleição intermediária federal ou estadual dos EUA estará dentro de 0,01%?
16% chance
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
16% chance
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States.
For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner.
The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market. **Traders assign a 72.5% probability to “No” because a 0.01% margin in any federal or statewide 2026 midterm race remains statistically improbable even amid competitive battlegrounds.** Current forecasts from multiple models show a handful of Senate and House toss-ups in states such as Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Iowa, yet projected margins in these contests generally exceed 1–3 points based on polling averages and fundamentals. Historical data reinforces this view: the closest recent congressional results have ranged from roughly 0.09% (2024 House) to 0.78% (2022 Senate), with no cycle producing a statewide or federal outcome decided by one one-hundredth of a percent.
With two months until November 3 voting, late shifts in turnout, third-party effects, or recount dynamics could narrow some races further, but structural factors—larger electorates in battleground states, established polling trends showing a Democratic-leaning generic ballot, and the absence of unusually volatile special circumstances—make an ultra-precise tie or sub-0.01% finish unlikely. Resolution hinges on certified final results meeting the exact threshold across any qualifying federal or statewide contest.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States.
For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner.
The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States.
For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner.
The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
Volume
$10Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States.
For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner.
The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market. **Traders assign a 72.5% probability to “No” because a 0.01% margin in any federal or statewide 2026 midterm race remains statistically improbable even amid competitive battlegrounds.** Current forecasts from multiple models show a handful of Senate and House toss-ups in states such as Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Iowa, yet projected margins in these contests generally exceed 1–3 points based on polling averages and fundamentals. Historical data reinforces this view: the closest recent congressional results have ranged from roughly 0.09% (2024 House) to 0.78% (2022 Senate), with no cycle producing a statewide or federal outcome decided by one one-hundredth of a percent.
With two months until November 3 voting, late shifts in turnout, third-party effects, or recount dynamics could narrow some races further, but structural factors—larger electorates in battleground states, established polling trends showing a Democratic-leaning generic ballot, and the absence of unusually volatile special circumstances—make an ultra-precise tie or sub-0.01% finish unlikely. Resolution hinges on certified final results meeting the exact threshold across any qualifying federal or statewide contest.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States.
For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner.
The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States.
For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner.
The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market.
Volume
$10Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 72.5% probability to “No” because a 0.01% margin in any federal or statewide 2026 midterm race remains statistically improbable even amid competitive battlegrounds.** Current forecasts from multiple models show a handful of Senate and House toss-ups in states such as Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Iowa, yet projected margins in these contests generally exceed 1–3 points based on polling averages and fundamentals. Historical data reinforces this view: the closest recent congressional results have ranged from roughly 0.09% (2024 House) to 0.78% (2022 Senate), with no cycle producing a statewide or federal outcome decided by one one-hundredth of a percent. With two months until November 3 voting, late shifts in turnout, third-party effects, or recount dynamics could narrow some races further, but structural factors—larger electorates in battleground states, established polling trends showing a Democratic-leaning generic ballot, and the absence of unusually volatile special circumstances—make an ultra-precise tie or sub-0.01% finish unlikely. Resolution hinges on certified final results meeting the exact threshold across any qualifying federal or statewide contest.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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