Multiple Republican-held Senate seats up in 2026 feature experienced Democratic challengers in states with modest partisan leans, positioning Texas, Iowa, Ohio (special), Alaska, and Maine as the leading contenders for the narrowest margin. Forecasters rate Alaska, Ohio, Maine, and Michigan as toss-ups, while Texas and Iowa lean Republican yet remain competitive due to open seats, candidate matchups like Sherrod Brown versus Jon Husted in Ohio, and Mary Peltola's challenge in Alaska. Recent primaries, polling averages showing sub-5-point spreads in several contests, and national midterm dynamics sustain the tightness among trader consensus. Late-cycle shifts in turnout, economic indicators, or candidate positioning could widen gaps before November.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTexas 33%
Iowa 23.8%
Ohio (Special) 13.7%
Alaska 12%
$27,785 Vol.
$27,785 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Texas
33%
Iowa
26%
Ohio (Special)
14%
Alaska
12%
Maine
10%
Nebraska
5%
Michigan
3%
Virginia
3%
New Mexico
3%
Florida (Special)
3%
North Carolina
2%
New Hampshire
2%
Georgia
1%
Colorado
1%
Minnesota
1%
Montana
<1%
Texas 33%
Iowa 23.8%
Ohio (Special) 13.7%
Alaska 12%
$27,785 Vol.
$27,785 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Texas
$819 Vol.
33%
Iowa
$2,627 Vol.
26%
Ohio (Special)
$5,040 Vol.
14%
Alaska
$5,231 Vol.
12%
Maine
$1,285 Vol.
10%
Nebraska
$275 Vol.
5%
Michigan
$2,396 Vol.
3%
Virginia
$5,073 Vol.
3%
New Mexico
$160 Vol.
3%
Florida (Special)
$253 Vol.
3%
North Carolina
$621 Vol.
2%
New Hampshire
$485 Vol.
2%
Georgia
$752 Vol.
1%
Colorado
$662 Vol.
1%
Minnesota
$1,489 Vol.
1%
Montana
$616 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Multiple Republican-held Senate seats up in 2026 feature experienced Democratic challengers in states with modest partisan leans, positioning Texas, Iowa, Ohio (special), Alaska, and Maine as the leading contenders for the narrowest margin. Forecasters rate Alaska, Ohio, Maine, and Michigan as toss-ups, while Texas and Iowa lean Republican yet remain competitive due to open seats, candidate matchups like Sherrod Brown versus Jon Husted in Ohio, and Mary Peltola's challenge in Alaska. Recent primaries, polling averages showing sub-5-point spreads in several contests, and national midterm dynamics sustain the tightness among trader consensus. Late-cycle shifts in turnout, economic indicators, or candidate positioning could widen gaps before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volume
$27,785Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Multiple Republican-held Senate seats up in 2026 feature experienced Democratic challengers in states with modest partisan leans, positioning Texas, Iowa, Ohio (special), Alaska, and Maine as the leading contenders for the narrowest margin. Forecasters rate Alaska, Ohio, Maine, and Michigan as toss-ups, while Texas and Iowa lean Republican yet remain competitive due to open seats, candidate matchups like Sherrod Brown versus Jon Husted in Ohio, and Mary Peltola's challenge in Alaska. Recent primaries, polling averages showing sub-5-point spreads in several contests, and national midterm dynamics sustain the tightness among trader consensus. Late-cycle shifts in turnout, economic indicators, or candidate positioning could widen gaps before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,785Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Multiple Republican-held Senate seats up in 2026 feature experienced Democratic challengers in states with modest partisan leans, positioning Texas, Iowa, Ohio (special), Alaska, and Maine as the leading contenders for the narrowest margin. Forecasters rate Alaska, Ohio, Maine, and Michigan as toss-ups, while Texas and Iowa lean Republican yet remain competitive due to open seats, candidate matchups like Sherrod Brown versus Jon Husted in Ohio, and Mary Peltola's challenge in Alaska. Recent primaries, polling averages showing sub-5-point spreads in several contests, and national midterm dynamics sustain the tightness among trader consensus. Late-cycle shifts in turnout, economic indicators, or candidate positioning could widen gaps before November.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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