Several 2026 Senate races stand out as potential sub-1% contests due to their toss-up ratings from outlets like the Cook Political Report. Key battlegrounds include Alaska (Sullivan incumbent), Maine (Collins), Ohio (open/special), Texas (Paxton), Iowa (open), and Michigan (open), where recent polling averages show margins of 1-4 points and forecasters note Democratic gains tied to national headwinds. Primaries wrapped in August, setting matchups in these states, while fundraising edges and candidate recruitment have tightened several contests. Traders price these outcomes based on the narrow paths to victory, late-campaign dynamics, and historical volatility in low-margin Senate races near Election Day on November 3.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNOVO
3 nov 2026
Virginia
50%
Colorado
50%
Montana
50%
New Mexico
50%
Georgia
50%
Minnesota
50%
Texas
50%
Maine
50%
Michigan
50%
Iowa
50%
Alaska
50%
Ohio (Special)
50%
New Hampshire
50%
Nebraska
50%
Florida (Special)
50%
North Carolina
50%
$0.00 Vol.
Virginia
$0 Vol.
50%
Colorado
$0 Vol.
50%
Montana
$0 Vol.
50%
New Mexico
$0 Vol.
50%
Georgia
$0 Vol.
50%
Minnesota
$0 Vol.
50%
Texas
$0 Vol.
50%
Maine
$0 Vol.
50%
Michigan
$0 Vol.
50%
Iowa
$0 Vol.
50%
Alaska
$0 Vol.
50%
Ohio (Special)
$0 Vol.
50%
New Hampshire
$0 Vol.
50%
Nebraska
$0 Vol.
50%
Florida (Special)
$0 Vol.
50%
North Carolina
$0 Vol.
50%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate races stand out as potential sub-1% contests due to their toss-up ratings from outlets like the Cook Political Report. Key battlegrounds include Alaska (Sullivan incumbent), Maine (Collins), Ohio (open/special), Texas (Paxton), Iowa (open), and Michigan (open), where recent polling averages show margins of 1-4 points and forecasters note Democratic gains tied to national headwinds. Primaries wrapped in August, setting matchups in these states, while fundraising edges and candidate recruitment have tightened several contests. Traders price these outcomes based on the narrow paths to victory, late-campaign dynamics, and historical volatility in low-margin Senate races near Election Day on November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate races stand out as potential sub-1% contests due to their toss-up ratings from outlets like the Cook Political Report. Key battlegrounds include Alaska (Sullivan incumbent), Maine (Collins), Ohio (open/special), Texas (Paxton), Iowa (open), and Michigan (open), where recent polling averages show margins of 1-4 points and forecasters note Democratic gains tied to national headwinds. Primaries wrapped in August, setting matchups in these states, while fundraising edges and candidate recruitment have tightened several contests. Traders price these outcomes based on the narrow paths to victory, late-campaign dynamics, and historical volatility in low-margin Senate races near Election Day on November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Several 2026 Senate races stand out as potential sub-1% contests due to their toss-up ratings from outlets like the Cook Political Report. Key battlegrounds include Alaska (Sullivan incumbent), Maine (Collins), Ohio (open/special), Texas (Paxton), Iowa (open), and Michigan (open), where recent polling averages show margins of 1-4 points and forecasters note Democratic gains tied to national headwinds. Primaries wrapped in August, setting matchups in these states, while fundraising edges and candidate recruitment have tightened several contests. Traders price these outcomes based on the narrow paths to victory, late-campaign dynamics, and historical volatility in low-margin Senate races near Election Day on November 3.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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