Recent Suffolk University/Boston Globe and UMass Amherst polls show incumbent Sen. Ed Markey leading Rep. Seth Moulton by 14–28 points among likely Democratic primary voters two weeks before the September 1 primary. This positioning reflects Markey’s established progressive record and incumbency advantages in a heavily Democratic state, alongside Moulton’s emphasis on generational change and congressional age limits that have not shifted voter preferences in recent surveys. The final debate on August 20 highlighted these contrasts without altering the trajectory. Traders price various Markey margins of 10–30 points and Moulton under 5 points as leading outcomes because the polling average points to a decisive yet not landslide result, with limited time left for Moulton to close the gap before votes are cast.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoMargem de Vitória da Primária do Senado Democrata de Massachusetts
Margem de Vitória da Primária do Senado Democrata de Massachusetts
Markey 25–30% 32%
Markey 20–25% 32%
Markey 15–20% 31%
Moulton <5% 29%
NOVO
NOVO
1 set 2026
Markey 40%+
25%
Markey 35–40%
24%
Markey 30–35%
26%
Markey 25–30%
32%
Markey 20–25%
32%
Markey 15–20%
31%
Markey 10–15%
29%
Markey 5–10%
22%
Markey <5%
22%
Moulton <5%
29%
Moulton 5%+
10%
Markey 25–30% 32%
Markey 20–25% 32%
Markey 15–20% 31%
Moulton <5% 29%
NOVO
NOVO
1 set 2026
Markey 40%+
$16 Vol.
25%
Markey 35–40%
$16 Vol.
24%
Markey 30–35%
$16 Vol.
26%
Markey 25–30%
$16 Vol.
32%
Markey 20–25%
$16 Vol.
32%
Markey 15–20%
$16 Vol.
31%
Markey 10–15%
$16 Vol.
29%
Markey 5–10%
$16 Vol.
22%
Markey <5%
$16 Vol.
22%
Moulton <5%
$16 Vol.
29%
Moulton 5%+
$101 Vol.
10%
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent Suffolk University/Boston Globe and UMass Amherst polls show incumbent Sen. Ed Markey leading Rep. Seth Moulton by 14–28 points among likely Democratic primary voters two weeks before the September 1 primary. This positioning reflects Markey’s established progressive record and incumbency advantages in a heavily Democratic state, alongside Moulton’s emphasis on generational change and congressional age limits that have not shifted voter preferences in recent surveys. The final debate on August 20 highlighted these contrasts without altering the trajectory. Traders price various Markey margins of 10–30 points and Moulton under 5 points as leading outcomes because the polling average points to a decisive yet not landslide result, with limited time left for Moulton to close the gap before votes are cast.
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ET
Volume
$261Data de Término
1 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.sec.state.ma.us/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent Suffolk University/Boston Globe and UMass Amherst polls show incumbent Sen. Ed Markey leading Rep. Seth Moulton by 14–28 points among likely Democratic primary voters two weeks before the September 1 primary. This positioning reflects Markey’s established progressive record and incumbency advantages in a heavily Democratic state, alongside Moulton’s emphasis on generational change and congressional age limits that have not shifted voter preferences in recent surveys. The final debate on August 20 highlighted these contrasts without altering the trajectory. Traders price various Markey margins of 10–30 points and Moulton under 5 points as leading outcomes because the polling average points to a decisive yet not landslide result, with limited time left for Moulton to close the gap before votes are cast.
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$261Data de Término
1 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.sec.state.ma.us/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Suffolk University/Boston Globe and UMass Amherst polls show incumbent Sen. Ed Markey leading Rep. Seth Moulton by 14–28 points among likely Democratic primary voters two weeks before the September 1 primary. This positioning reflects Markey’s established progressive record and incumbency advantages in a heavily Democratic state, alongside Moulton’s emphasis on generational change and congressional age limits that have not shifted voter preferences in recent surveys. The final debate on August 20 highlighted these contrasts without altering the trajectory. Traders price various Markey margins of 10–30 points and Moulton under 5 points as leading outcomes because the polling average points to a decisive yet not landslide result, with limited time left for Moulton to close the gap before votes are cast.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
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Frequently Asked Questions