Vermont’s at-large House seat remains a strong Democratic hold, with trader consensus reflecting the district’s consistent partisan pattern since 1990 and the re-election bid of incumbent Becca Balint. Balint formally launched her campaign in May 2026 and faces minimal primary opposition ahead of the August 11 vote, while Republican contenders Mark Coester and Gerald Malloy compete in their own primary. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report and Inside Elections classify the race as Solid Democratic, consistent with Balint’s 2024 margin exceeding 30 points. Primary drivers include Vermont’s longstanding voter registration and turnout trends favoring Democrats, combined with the structural advantages of incumbency such as fundraising and name recognition. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen scandal, a pronounced national Republican surge altering turnout, or an unusually competitive independent candidacy, though none of these factors currently register in available campaign filings or district assessments.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVT-AL House Election Winner
VT-AL House Election Winner
$15,228 Vol.
$15,228 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
6%
$15,228 Vol.
$15,228 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$7,452 Vol.
93%
Republican Party
$7,775 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Vermont’s at-large House seat remains a strong Democratic hold, with trader consensus reflecting the district’s consistent partisan pattern since 1990 and the re-election bid of incumbent Becca Balint. Balint formally launched her campaign in May 2026 and faces minimal primary opposition ahead of the August 11 vote, while Republican contenders Mark Coester and Gerald Malloy compete in their own primary. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report and Inside Elections classify the race as Solid Democratic, consistent with Balint’s 2024 margin exceeding 30 points. Primary drivers include Vermont’s longstanding voter registration and turnout trends favoring Democrats, combined with the structural advantages of incumbency such as fundraising and name recognition. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen scandal, a pronounced national Republican surge altering turnout, or an unusually competitive independent candidacy, though none of these factors currently register in available campaign filings or district assessments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$15,228Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Vermont’s at-large House seat remains a strong Democratic hold, with trader consensus reflecting the district’s consistent partisan pattern since 1990 and the re-election bid of incumbent Becca Balint. Balint formally launched her campaign in May 2026 and faces minimal primary opposition ahead of the August 11 vote, while Republican contenders Mark Coester and Gerald Malloy compete in their own primary. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report and Inside Elections classify the race as Solid Democratic, consistent with Balint’s 2024 margin exceeding 30 points. Primary drivers include Vermont’s longstanding voter registration and turnout trends favoring Democrats, combined with the structural advantages of incumbency such as fundraising and name recognition. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen scandal, a pronounced national Republican surge altering turnout, or an unusually competitive independent candidacy, though none of these factors currently register in available campaign filings or district assessments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$15,228Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Vermont’s at-large House seat remains a strong Democratic hold, with trader consensus reflecting the district’s consistent partisan pattern since 1990 and the re-election bid of incumbent Becca Balint. Balint formally launched her campaign in May 2026 and faces minimal primary opposition ahead of the August 11 vote, while Republican contenders Mark Coester and Gerald Malloy compete in their own primary. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report and Inside Elections classify the race as Solid Democratic, consistent with Balint’s 2024 margin exceeding 30 points. Primary drivers include Vermont’s longstanding voter registration and turnout trends favoring Democrats, combined with the structural advantages of incumbency such as fundraising and name recognition. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen scandal, a pronounced national Republican surge altering turnout, or an unusually competitive independent candidacy, though none of these factors currently register in available campaign filings or district assessments.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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