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icon for Mitch McConnell deixa o Senado antes do fim do seu mandato?

Mitch McConnell deixa o Senado antes do fim do seu mandato?

icon for Mitch McConnell deixa o Senado antes do fim do seu mandato?

Mitch McConnell deixa o Senado antes do fim do seu mandato?

Sim

24% chance
Polymarket

$1,114,986 Vol.

Sim

24% chance
Polymarket

$1,114,986 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.Mitch McConnell’s February 2025 announcement that he would not seek an eighth Senate term, combined with his explicit statements committing to finish the current term ending in January 2027, has anchored trader expectations. Recent health setbacks, including a prolonged July 2026 hospitalization and extended rehabilitation that kept him absent from the chamber for weeks, prompted some Democratic calls for resignation, yet McConnell’s office has released updates emphasizing recovery and a return to duties without signaling an early exit. Historical patterns show senators often complete terms despite extended medical absences, and McConnell faces no formal term-limit or eligibility barrier that would force departure before the scheduled end. With the 2026 midterm cycle already shaping an open-seat contest in Kentucky, the absence of any official retirement statement or procedural move to vacate the seat sustains the view that completion of the term remains the baseline outcome.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify.

The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
Volume
$1,114,986
Data de Término
3 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Oct 17, 2025, 5:17 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.Mitch McConnell’s February 2025 announcement that he would not seek an eighth Senate term, combined with his explicit statements committing to finish the current term ending in January 2027, has anchored trader expectations. Recent health setbacks, including a prolonged July 2026 hospitalization and extended rehabilitation that kept him absent from the chamber for weeks, prompted some Democratic calls for resignation, yet McConnell’s office has released updates emphasizing recovery and a return to duties without signaling an early exit. Historical patterns show senators often complete terms despite extended medical absences, and McConnell faces no formal term-limit or eligibility barrier that would force departure before the scheduled end. With the 2026 midterm cycle already shaping an open-seat contest in Kentucky, the absence of any official retirement statement or procedural move to vacate the seat sustains the view that completion of the term remains the baseline outcome.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify.

The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
Volume
$1,114,986
Data de Término
3 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Oct 17, 2025, 5:17 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Mitch McConnell deixa o Senado antes do fim do seu mandato?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mitch McConnell deixa o Senado antes de terminar seu mandato?" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Mitch McConnell deixa o Senado antes do fim do seu mandato?" has generated $1.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 17, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Mitch McConnell deixa o Senado antes do fim do seu mandato?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Mitch McConnell deixa o Senado antes do fim do seu mandato?" is "Mitch McConnell deixa o Senado antes de terminar seu mandato?" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Mitch McConnell deixa o Senado antes do fim do seu mandato?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.