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icon for Mitch McConnell deixará o Senado antes do fim do seu mandato?
Política·Congresso

Mitch McConnell deixará o Senado antes do fim do seu mandato?

icon for Mitch McConnell deixará o Senado antes do fim do seu mandato?
Política·Congresso

Mitch McConnell deixará o Senado antes do fim do seu mandato?

Sim

24% chance
Polymarket

$112,483 Vol.

Sim

24% chance
Polymarket

$112,483 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.Senator Mitch McConnell's February 2025 announcement committing to complete his current Senate term ending January 2029, despite forgoing re-election in 2026, anchors trader consensus at 76% against an early resignation. His February 2026 hospitalization for flu-like symptoms, followed by discharge and return to remote work, raised health concerns but did not prompt withdrawal. More recently, on May 12, McConnell appeared disoriented during a Pete Hegseth confirmation hearing, requiring staff intervention, which reignited calls for retirement amid ongoing freeze episodes. Absent party pressure, a special election trigger, or acute deterioration, traders view his lame-duck tenure as likely intact, reflecting historical patterns where aging incumbents serve out terms in safe seats like Kentucky.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify.

The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
Volume
$112,483
Data de Término
3 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Oct 17, 2025, 5:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.Senator Mitch McConnell's February 2025 announcement committing to complete his current Senate term ending January 2029, despite forgoing re-election in 2026, anchors trader consensus at 76% against an early resignation. His February 2026 hospitalization for flu-like symptoms, followed by discharge and return to remote work, raised health concerns but did not prompt withdrawal. More recently, on May 12, McConnell appeared disoriented during a Pete Hegseth confirmation hearing, requiring staff intervention, which reignited calls for retirement amid ongoing freeze episodes. Absent party pressure, a special election trigger, or acute deterioration, traders view his lame-duck tenure as likely intact, reflecting historical patterns where aging incumbents serve out terms in safe seats like Kentucky.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify.

The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
Volume
$112,483
Data de Término
3 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Oct 17, 2025, 5:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Mitch McConnell deixará o Senado antes do fim do seu mandato?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mitch McConnell vai deixar o Senado antes do fim do seu mandato?" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Mitch McConnell deixará o Senado antes do fim do seu mandato?" has generated $112.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 17, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Mitch McConnell deixará o Senado antes do fim do seu mandato?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Mitch McConnell deixará o Senado antes do fim do seu mandato?" is "Mitch McConnell vai deixar o Senado antes do fim do seu mandato?" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Mitch McConnell deixará o Senado antes do fim do seu mandato?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.