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Política·Irão

Will the US Senate pass at least $20 billion in supplemental War Funding by September 30?

icon for Will the US Senate pass at least $20 billion in supplemental War Funding by September 30?
Política·Irão

Will the US Senate pass at least $20 billion in supplemental War Funding by September 30?

72% chance
Polymarket
NOVO
72% chance
Polymarket
NOVO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a bill that, if enacted, would provide at least $20 billion in supplemental funding to the Department of Defense or otherwise to the United States military by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Trump administration’s June 2026 request for $67–88 billion in supplemental appropriations, primarily to cover Pentagon costs from the ongoing U.S. operations against Iran, has created legislative momentum ahead of the September 30 fiscal-year deadline. House Republicans advanced a related reconciliation package exceeding $70 billion in defense funding in July, while Senate Majority Leader Thune has prioritized negotiations on a continuing resolution or budget framework that could incorporate the supplemental. Testimony from Defense Secretary Hegseth detailing $37.5 billion already spent reinforced urgency, though Senate Democrats have blocked related measures and demanded concessions. Traders view passage of at least $20 billion as probable given these pressures and historical patterns of year-end defense funding, despite the 60-vote threshold and partisan divides.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a bill that, if enacted, would provide at least $20 billion in supplemental funding to the Department of Defense or otherwise to the United States military by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$417
Data de Término
30 set 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 26, 2026, 5:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a bill that, if enacted, would provide at least $20 billion in supplemental funding to the Department of Defense or otherwise to the United States military by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a bill that, if enacted, would provide at least $20 billion in supplemental funding to the Department of Defense or otherwise to the United States military by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Trump administration’s June 2026 request for $67–88 billion in supplemental appropriations, primarily to cover Pentagon costs from the ongoing U.S. operations against Iran, has created legislative momentum ahead of the September 30 fiscal-year deadline. House Republicans advanced a related reconciliation package exceeding $70 billion in defense funding in July, while Senate Majority Leader Thune has prioritized negotiations on a continuing resolution or budget framework that could incorporate the supplemental. Testimony from Defense Secretary Hegseth detailing $37.5 billion already spent reinforced urgency, though Senate Democrats have blocked related measures and demanded concessions. Traders view passage of at least $20 billion as probable given these pressures and historical patterns of year-end defense funding, despite the 60-vote threshold and partisan divides.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a bill that, if enacted, would provide at least $20 billion in supplemental funding to the Department of Defense or otherwise to the United States military by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$417
Data de Término
30 set 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 26, 2026, 5:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a bill that, if enacted, would provide at least $20 billion in supplemental funding to the Department of Defense or otherwise to the United States military by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the US Senate pass at least $20 billion in supplemental War Funding by September 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 74% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 74¢, the market collectively assigns a 74% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will the US Senate pass at least $20 billion in supplemental War Funding by September 30?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will the US Senate pass at least $20 billion in supplemental War Funding by September 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the US Senate pass at least $20 billion in supplemental War Funding by September 30?" is 74% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 74% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the US Senate pass at least $20 billion in supplemental War Funding by September 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.