**Trader consensus on the Polymarket for Republican Senate incumbents failing to win their primaries centers on three at 82 percent, with four at 12 percent.** This positioning reflects two confirmed primary defeats—John Cornyn in Texas and Bill Cassidy in Louisiana—driven by challenges from Trump-endorsed candidates emphasizing party loyalty and alignment with the administration. Elevated primary activity stems from unusually high retirements among the seven GOP senators not seeking reelection, alongside targeted contests testing incumbents on issues like past Trump impeachment votes or perceived moderation. Recent August primaries, including competitive runoffs in South Carolina and results in states like Tennessee and Minnesota, have shown mixed outcomes for sitting members but reinforced the pattern of stronger challengers in open or vulnerable seats. Historical base rates for Senate primary upsets remain low, yet 2026’s elevated turnover and loyalty dynamics support the market’s lean toward exactly three losses by the close of the cycle.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado3 82.1%
4 7.9%
2 7.5%
>4 3.1%
$54,320 Vol.
$54,320 Vol.
0
<1%
1
<1%
2
8%
3
82%
4
8%
>4
3%
3 82.1%
4 7.9%
2 7.5%
>4 3.1%
$54,320 Vol.
$54,320 Vol.
0
$4,201 Vol.
<1%
1
$3,323 Vol.
<1%
2
$30,706 Vol.
8%
3
$7,548 Vol.
82%
4
$4,541 Vol.
8%
>4
$4,000 Vol.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus on the Polymarket for Republican Senate incumbents failing to win their primaries centers on three at 82 percent, with four at 12 percent.** This positioning reflects two confirmed primary defeats—John Cornyn in Texas and Bill Cassidy in Louisiana—driven by challenges from Trump-endorsed candidates emphasizing party loyalty and alignment with the administration. Elevated primary activity stems from unusually high retirements among the seven GOP senators not seeking reelection, alongside targeted contests testing incumbents on issues like past Trump impeachment votes or perceived moderation. Recent August primaries, including competitive runoffs in South Carolina and results in states like Tennessee and Minnesota, have shown mixed outcomes for sitting members but reinforced the pattern of stronger challengers in open or vulnerable seats. Historical base rates for Senate primary upsets remain low, yet 2026’s elevated turnover and loyalty dynamics support the market’s lean toward exactly three losses by the close of the cycle.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Volume
$54,320Mercado Aberto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus on the Polymarket for Republican Senate incumbents failing to win their primaries centers on three at 82 percent, with four at 12 percent.** This positioning reflects two confirmed primary defeats—John Cornyn in Texas and Bill Cassidy in Louisiana—driven by challenges from Trump-endorsed candidates emphasizing party loyalty and alignment with the administration. Elevated primary activity stems from unusually high retirements among the seven GOP senators not seeking reelection, alongside targeted contests testing incumbents on issues like past Trump impeachment votes or perceived moderation. Recent August primaries, including competitive runoffs in South Carolina and results in states like Tennessee and Minnesota, have shown mixed outcomes for sitting members but reinforced the pattern of stronger challengers in open or vulnerable seats. Historical base rates for Senate primary upsets remain low, yet 2026’s elevated turnover and loyalty dynamics support the market’s lean toward exactly three losses by the close of the cycle.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$54,320Mercado Aberto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus on the Polymarket for Republican Senate incumbents failing to win their primaries centers on three at 82 percent, with four at 12 percent.** This positioning reflects two confirmed primary defeats—John Cornyn in Texas and Bill Cassidy in Louisiana—driven by challenges from Trump-endorsed candidates emphasizing party loyalty and alignment with the administration. Elevated primary activity stems from unusually high retirements among the seven GOP senators not seeking reelection, alongside targeted contests testing incumbents on issues like past Trump impeachment votes or perceived moderation. Recent August primaries, including competitive runoffs in South Carolina and results in states like Tennessee and Minnesota, have shown mixed outcomes for sitting members but reinforced the pattern of stronger challengers in open or vulnerable seats. Historical base rates for Senate primary upsets remain low, yet 2026’s elevated turnover and loyalty dynamics support the market’s lean toward exactly three losses by the close of the cycle.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
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