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Política·Câmara Dos Representantes

Speaker of the House after the midterms?

icon for Speaker of the House after the midterms?
Política·Câmara Dos Representantes

Speaker of the House after the midterms?

Hakeem Jeffries 77%

Pete Aguilar 24.1%

Mike Johnson 17.2%

Jim Jordan 6.3%

Polymarket
NOVO

Hakeem Jeffries 77%

Pete Aguilar 24.1%

Mike Johnson 17.2%

Jim Jordan 6.3%

Polymarket
NOVO
icon for Hakeem Jeffries

Hakeem Jeffries

$1,356 Vol.

75%

icon for Katherine Clark

Katherine Clark

$55 Vol.

5%

icon for Pete Aguilar

Pete Aguilar

$65 Vol.

24%

icon for Jim Jordan

Jim Jordan

$88 Vol.

6%

icon for Steve Scalise

Steve Scalise

$55 Vol.

4%

icon for Mike Johnson

Mike Johnson

$65 Vol.

17%

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Hakeem Jeffries at 80% implied probability to become Speaker after the 2026 midterms, reflecting strong expectations of Democrats flipping the narrow Republican House majority amid persistent generic ballot leads and President Trump's declining approval ratings. As House Minority Leader, Jeffries would assume the role if Democrats secure a majority, with no notable intraparty challengers like Pete Aguilar or Katherine Clark emerging. Current Speaker Mike Johnson trails at 10.4%, buoyed by recent redistricting gains—such as Virginia's Supreme Court rejection of a Democratic map on May 13—tightening forecasts from outlets like Sabato's Crystal Ball (Republicans 211, Democrats 208, 16 toss-ups) but failing to overcome historical midterm penalties for the president's party. GOP alternatives like Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise linger at low odds amid party divisions. Primaries and further map fights could shift dynamics before November 3.

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,683
Data de Término
3 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Apr 8, 2026, 6:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Hakeem Jeffries at 80% implied probability to become Speaker after the 2026 midterms, reflecting strong expectations of Democrats flipping the narrow Republican House majority amid persistent generic ballot leads and President Trump's declining approval ratings. As House Minority Leader, Jeffries would assume the role if Democrats secure a majority, with no notable intraparty challengers like Pete Aguilar or Katherine Clark emerging. Current Speaker Mike Johnson trails at 10.4%, buoyed by recent redistricting gains—such as Virginia's Supreme Court rejection of a Democratic map on May 13—tightening forecasts from outlets like Sabato's Crystal Ball (Republicans 211, Democrats 208, 16 toss-ups) but failing to overcome historical midterm penalties for the president's party. GOP alternatives like Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise linger at low odds amid party divisions. Primaries and further map fights could shift dynamics before November 3.

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,683
Data de Término
3 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Apr 8, 2026, 6:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Speaker of the House after the midterms?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Hakeem Jeffries" at 75%, followed by "Pete Aguilar" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 75¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Speaker of the House after the midterms?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 8, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Speaker of the House after the midterms?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Speaker of the House after the midterms?" is "Hakeem Jeffries" at 75%, meaning the market assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Pete Aguilar" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Speaker of the House after the midterms?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.