**Traders assign an 89% probability that no federal law banning sports prediction markets will be enacted in 2026.** Multiple bipartisan bills, including the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act introduced in March by Sens. Adam Schiff and John Curtis, seek to bar CFTC-regulated platforms from offering sports event contracts or casino-style games, but none have advanced beyond committee. Related provisions failed to attach to the Clarity Act, which stalled in the Senate in September. State actions remain fragmented: Minnesota’s May outright ban was enjoined by federal court on preemption grounds, Utah redefined gambling to restrict proposition bets, and Illinois imposed licensing requirements, yet litigation and CFTC enforcement have preserved access in most jurisdictions. Ongoing Ninth Circuit and other rulings, plus the CFTC’s proposed rulemaking on event contracts, have reinforced federal oversight without triggering a nationwide prohibition. With legislative calendars tight and no breakthrough momentum, the market reflects limited near-term enactment risk.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoLei que proíbe mercados de previsão esportiva promulgada em 2026?
Lei que proíbe mercados de previsão esportiva promulgada em 2026?
Sim
11% chance
$19,895 Vol.
$19,895 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
11% chance
$19,895 Vol.
$19,895 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Traders assign an 89% probability that no federal law banning sports prediction markets will be enacted in 2026.** Multiple bipartisan bills, including the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act introduced in March by Sens. Adam Schiff and John Curtis, seek to bar CFTC-regulated platforms from offering sports event contracts or casino-style games, but none have advanced beyond committee. Related provisions failed to attach to the Clarity Act, which stalled in the Senate in September. State actions remain fragmented: Minnesota’s May outright ban was enjoined by federal court on preemption grounds, Utah redefined gambling to restrict proposition bets, and Illinois imposed licensing requirements, yet litigation and CFTC enforcement have preserved access in most jurisdictions. Ongoing Ninth Circuit and other rulings, plus the CFTC’s proposed rulemaking on event contracts, have reinforced federal oversight without triggering a nationwide prohibition. With legislative calendars tight and no breakthrough momentum, the market reflects limited near-term enactment risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$19,895Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Traders assign an 89% probability that no federal law banning sports prediction markets will be enacted in 2026.** Multiple bipartisan bills, including the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act introduced in March by Sens. Adam Schiff and John Curtis, seek to bar CFTC-regulated platforms from offering sports event contracts or casino-style games, but none have advanced beyond committee. Related provisions failed to attach to the Clarity Act, which stalled in the Senate in September. State actions remain fragmented: Minnesota’s May outright ban was enjoined by federal court on preemption grounds, Utah redefined gambling to restrict proposition bets, and Illinois imposed licensing requirements, yet litigation and CFTC enforcement have preserved access in most jurisdictions. Ongoing Ninth Circuit and other rulings, plus the CFTC’s proposed rulemaking on event contracts, have reinforced federal oversight without triggering a nationwide prohibition. With legislative calendars tight and no breakthrough momentum, the market reflects limited near-term enactment risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$19,895Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 89% probability that no federal law banning sports prediction markets will be enacted in 2026.** Multiple bipartisan bills, including the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act introduced in March by Sens. Adam Schiff and John Curtis, seek to bar CFTC-regulated platforms from offering sports event contracts or casino-style games, but none have advanced beyond committee. Related provisions failed to attach to the Clarity Act, which stalled in the Senate in September. State actions remain fragmented: Minnesota’s May outright ban was enjoined by federal court on preemption grounds, Utah redefined gambling to restrict proposition bets, and Illinois imposed licensing requirements, yet litigation and CFTC enforcement have preserved access in most jurisdictions. Ongoing Ninth Circuit and other rulings, plus the CFTC’s proposed rulemaking on event contracts, have reinforced federal oversight without triggering a nationwide prohibition. With legislative calendars tight and no breakthrough momentum, the market reflects limited near-term enactment risk.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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