Democrats' prospects for gaining House control in the 2026 midterms represent the primary driver behind the 62% implied probability for impeachment before January 2029. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority, blocking any articles of impeachment, though scattered Democratic resolutions have surfaced over foreign policy actions including Iran-related statements and Venezuela operations. Trump has publicly linked Republican midterm success to avoiding renewed proceedings. If Democrats secure the House, historical patterns show they have pursued impeachment inquiries against opposition presidents, while Senate conviction remains a separate and higher bar. Prediction markets reflect this contingency on chamber control rather than current legislative momentum.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
62% chance
$89,034 Vol.
$89,034 Vol.
20 jan 2029
Sim
62% chance
$89,034 Vol.
$89,034 Vol.
20 jan 2029
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democrats' prospects for gaining House control in the 2026 midterms represent the primary driver behind the 62% implied probability for impeachment before January 2029. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority, blocking any articles of impeachment, though scattered Democratic resolutions have surfaced over foreign policy actions including Iran-related statements and Venezuela operations. Trump has publicly linked Republican midterm success to avoiding renewed proceedings. If Democrats secure the House, historical patterns show they have pursued impeachment inquiries against opposition presidents, while Senate conviction remains a separate and higher bar. Prediction markets reflect this contingency on chamber control rather than current legislative momentum.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$89,034Data de Término
20 jan 2029Mercado Aberto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democrats' prospects for gaining House control in the 2026 midterms represent the primary driver behind the 62% implied probability for impeachment before January 2029. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority, blocking any articles of impeachment, though scattered Democratic resolutions have surfaced over foreign policy actions including Iran-related statements and Venezuela operations. Trump has publicly linked Republican midterm success to avoiding renewed proceedings. If Democrats secure the House, historical patterns show they have pursued impeachment inquiries against opposition presidents, while Senate conviction remains a separate and higher bar. Prediction markets reflect this contingency on chamber control rather than current legislative momentum.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volume
$89,034Data de Término
20 jan 2029Mercado Aberto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Democrats' prospects for gaining House control in the 2026 midterms represent the primary driver behind the 62% implied probability for impeachment before January 2029. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority, blocking any articles of impeachment, though scattered Democratic resolutions have surfaced over foreign policy actions including Iran-related statements and Venezuela operations. Trump has publicly linked Republican midterm success to avoiding renewed proceedings. If Democrats secure the House, historical patterns show they have pursued impeachment inquiries against opposition presidents, while Senate conviction remains a separate and higher bar. Prediction markets reflect this contingency on chamber control rather than current legislative momentum.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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