Traders assign an 89.5% implied probability that South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem will avoid impeachment in 2026, reflecting Republican supermajority control of the state legislature and the absence of any formal proceedings, articles of impeachment, or bipartisan legislative momentum. No major scandals, ethics investigations, or policy disputes have prompted calls for removal, consistent with the historical rarity of successful gubernatorial impeachments absent broad consensus. The current legislative calendar focuses on appropriations and routine oversight rather than extraordinary measures, leaving no near-term catalysts that would alter this trader consensus.