Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, including Mitch McConnell, Thom Tillis, Joni Ernst, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, Tommy Tuberville, and appointed Sen. Alan Armstrong, producing the dominant market weighting near 77% on a total of seven. These decisions, clustered from late 2025 through March 2026, reflect standard patterns of incumbents stepping aside after long service or to pursue other offices such as governorships, alongside two open seats created by primary defeats of John Cornyn and Bill Cassidy in May. No additional Republican Senate retirements or losses have occurred since, and filing deadlines have passed without further shifts, anchoring trader consensus on stability through mid-August while assigning limited probability to late-cycle primary challenges that could push the count higher.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado7 77%
11 9.3%
9 4.7%
5 3.4%
$101,009 Vol.
$101,009 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<5
1%
5
3%
6
1%
7
77%
8
1%
9
5%
10
2%
11
9%
12 ou mais
1%
7 77%
11 9.3%
9 4.7%
5 3.4%
$101,009 Vol.
$101,009 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<5
$22,734 Vol.
1%
5
$17,485 Vol.
3%
6
$27,247 Vol.
1%
7
$16,967 Vol.
77%
8
$4,602 Vol.
1%
9
$2,208 Vol.
5%
10
$1,839 Vol.
2%
11
$2,845 Vol.
9%
12 ou mais
$5,082 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, including Mitch McConnell, Thom Tillis, Joni Ernst, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, Tommy Tuberville, and appointed Sen. Alan Armstrong, producing the dominant market weighting near 77% on a total of seven. These decisions, clustered from late 2025 through March 2026, reflect standard patterns of incumbents stepping aside after long service or to pursue other offices such as governorships, alongside two open seats created by primary defeats of John Cornyn and Bill Cassidy in May. No additional Republican Senate retirements or losses have occurred since, and filing deadlines have passed without further shifts, anchoring trader consensus on stability through mid-August while assigning limited probability to late-cycle primary challenges that could push the count higher.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$101,009Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, including Mitch McConnell, Thom Tillis, Joni Ernst, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, Tommy Tuberville, and appointed Sen. Alan Armstrong, producing the dominant market weighting near 77% on a total of seven. These decisions, clustered from late 2025 through March 2026, reflect standard patterns of incumbents stepping aside after long service or to pursue other offices such as governorships, alongside two open seats created by primary defeats of John Cornyn and Bill Cassidy in May. No additional Republican Senate retirements or losses have occurred since, and filing deadlines have passed without further shifts, anchoring trader consensus on stability through mid-August while assigning limited probability to late-cycle primary challenges that could push the count higher.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$101,009Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, including Mitch McConnell, Thom Tillis, Joni Ernst, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, Tommy Tuberville, and appointed Sen. Alan Armstrong, producing the dominant market weighting near 77% on a total of seven. These decisions, clustered from late 2025 through March 2026, reflect standard patterns of incumbents stepping aside after long service or to pursue other offices such as governorships, alongside two open seats created by primary defeats of John Cornyn and Bill Cassidy in May. No additional Republican Senate retirements or losses have occurred since, and filing deadlines have passed without further shifts, anchoring trader consensus on stability through mid-August while assigning limited probability to late-cycle primary challenges that could push the count higher.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
O número de membros republicanos da Câmara que se aposentarão em 2026 será entre 36 e 39, inclusive?
84%
Sim
O número de membros democratas da Câmara que se aposentarão em 2026 será entre 20 e 23, inclusive?
40%
Sim
Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
79%
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