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icon for Quantos membros da Câmara Democrata não concorrerão em 2026?
Política·Congresso

Quantos membros da Câmara Democrata não concorrerão em 2026?

icon for Quantos membros da Câmara Democrata não concorrerão em 2026?
Política·Congresso

Quantos membros da Câmara Democrata não concorrerão em 2026?

32–35 30.2%

24–27 22%

28–31 18%

20–23 15.4%

Polymarket

$31,637 Vol.

32–35 30.2%

24–27 22%

28–31 18%

20–23 15.4%

Polymarket

$31,637 Vol.

<20

$16,991 Vol.

2%

20–23

$5,244 Vol.

15%

24–27

$4,156 Vol.

22%

28–31

$1,164 Vol.

18%

32–35

$3,574 Vol.

30%

36–39

$508 Vol.

3%

40 ou mais

$0 Vol.

16%

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of May 15, 2026, 21 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, including Rep. Steve Cohen's fresh retirement declaration from Tennessee's 9th District, amid a record 57 total House departures signaling institutional frustration and redistricting pressures. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 32–35 (30%) and lower ranges like 24–27 (20%) and 40+ (20.5%), reflecting uncertainty over the pace of further exits from vulnerable districts in battleground states, where incumbents face midterm headwinds under a Republican presidency. Historical patterns show retirements accelerating toward summer filing deadlines and primaries, with potential for separation via announcements from swing-district moderates or leadership figures; conversely, party recruitment efforts could cap the total below 30.

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$31,637
Data de Término
31 ago 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of May 15, 2026, 21 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, including Rep. Steve Cohen's fresh retirement declaration from Tennessee's 9th District, amid a record 57 total House departures signaling institutional frustration and redistricting pressures. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 32–35 (30%) and lower ranges like 24–27 (20%) and 40+ (20.5%), reflecting uncertainty over the pace of further exits from vulnerable districts in battleground states, where incumbents face midterm headwinds under a Republican presidency. Historical patterns show retirements accelerating toward summer filing deadlines and primaries, with potential for separation via announcements from swing-district moderates or leadership figures; conversely, party recruitment efforts could cap the total below 30.

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$31,637
Data de Término
31 ago 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quantos membros da Câmara Democrata não concorrerão em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "32–35" at 30%, followed by "24–27" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 30¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quantos membros da Câmara Democrata não concorrerão em 2026?" has generated $31.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quantos membros da Câmara Democrata não concorrerão em 2026?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quantos membros da Câmara Democrata não concorrerão em 2026?" is "32–35" at 30%, meaning the market assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "24–27" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quantos membros da Câmara Democrata não concorrerão em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.