**As of mid-August 2026, 23 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning with the market's leading 20–23 bin.** This total encompasses both outright retirements from public office (around 15) and members pursuing other roles such as Senate or gubernatorial bids. High-profile departures include Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Jerry Nadler, Lloyd Doggett, Danny Davis, and others with decades of service, driven by age, post-2024 electoral pressures, and redistricting impacts in states like Texas and Tennessee. Several additional Democrats are shifting to statewide races, contributing to open seats without changing the core count. No major new announcements have emerged in recent weeks to shift the total substantially, and filing deadlines in most states have largely passed, stabilizing expectations around the low-to-mid 20s amid a broader wave of congressional turnover.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado20–23 57.1%
24–27 25%
32–35 7.1%
<20 6.9%
$48,632 Vol.
$48,632 Vol.
30 ago 2026
<20
7%
20–23
57%
24–27
25%
28–31
5%
32–35
7%
36–39
1%
40 ou mais
4%
20–23 57.1%
24–27 25%
32–35 7.1%
<20 6.9%
$48,632 Vol.
$48,632 Vol.
30 ago 2026
<20
$17,922 Vol.
7%
20–23
$11,391 Vol.
57%
24–27
$9,494 Vol.
25%
28–31
$2,023 Vol.
5%
32–35
$4,640 Vol.
7%
36–39
$1,409 Vol.
1%
40 ou mais
$1,753 Vol.
4%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**As of mid-August 2026, 23 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning with the market's leading 20–23 bin.** This total encompasses both outright retirements from public office (around 15) and members pursuing other roles such as Senate or gubernatorial bids.
High-profile departures include Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Jerry Nadler, Lloyd Doggett, Danny Davis, and others with decades of service, driven by age, post-2024 electoral pressures, and redistricting impacts in states like Texas and Tennessee. Several additional Democrats are shifting to statewide races, contributing to open seats without changing the core count.
No major new announcements have emerged in recent weeks to shift the total substantially, and filing deadlines in most states have largely passed, stabilizing expectations around the low-to-mid 20s amid a broader wave of congressional turnover.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$48,632Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**As of mid-August 2026, 23 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning with the market's leading 20–23 bin.** This total encompasses both outright retirements from public office (around 15) and members pursuing other roles such as Senate or gubernatorial bids.
High-profile departures include Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Jerry Nadler, Lloyd Doggett, Danny Davis, and others with decades of service, driven by age, post-2024 electoral pressures, and redistricting impacts in states like Texas and Tennessee. Several additional Democrats are shifting to statewide races, contributing to open seats without changing the core count.
No major new announcements have emerged in recent weeks to shift the total substantially, and filing deadlines in most states have largely passed, stabilizing expectations around the low-to-mid 20s amid a broader wave of congressional turnover.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$48,632Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**As of mid-August 2026, 23 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning with the market's leading 20–23 bin.** This total encompasses both outright retirements from public office (around 15) and members pursuing other roles such as Senate or gubernatorial bids. High-profile departures include Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Jerry Nadler, Lloyd Doggett, Danny Davis, and others with decades of service, driven by age, post-2024 electoral pressures, and redistricting impacts in states like Texas and Tennessee. Several additional Democrats are shifting to statewide races, contributing to open seats without changing the core count. No major new announcements have emerged in recent weeks to shift the total substantially, and filing deadlines in most states have largely passed, stabilizing expectations around the low-to-mid 20s amid a broader wave of congressional turnover.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
O número de membros republicanos da Câmara que se aposentarão em 2026 será entre 36 e 39, inclusive?
90%
Sim
O número de membros republicanos do Senado que se aposentam em 2026 será exatamente 7?
87%
Sim
Os titulares democratas da Câmara não vencerão em entre dez e doze eleições de nomeação no ciclo de 2026?
74%
Sim
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