Josh Turek secured the Democratic nomination for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat in the June 2 primary, defeating state Sen. Zach Wahls by roughly 25 percentage points according to certified results and projections. National party support, substantial outside spending favoring Turek, and voter preference for his profile as a state representative and Paralympic athlete contributed to the outcome in this two-candidate contest. The market’s near-certain pricing on a 20–30% margin aligns with these vote totals, while low probabilities on other ranges reflect limited remaining uncertainty around final certification or minor adjustments. A recount or delayed official canvass could still shift the exact margin within a narrow band, though historical patterns in Iowa primaries suggest such changes are rare once initial counts stabilize.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTurek 20–30% 99.0%
Turek 30%+ 4.6%
Turek <10% 3.0%
Turek 10–20% 1.3%
$5,187 Vol.
$5,187 Vol.
2 jun 2026
Turek <10%
3%
Turek 30%+
5%
Turek 10–20%
1%
Turek 20–30%
99%
Wahls Vence
1%
Turek 20–30% 99.0%
Turek 30%+ 4.6%
Turek <10% 3.0%
Turek 10–20% 1.3%
$5,187 Vol.
$5,187 Vol.
2 jun 2026
Turek <10%
$308 Vol.
3%
Turek 30%+
$233 Vol.
5%
Turek 10–20%
$227 Vol.
1%
Turek 20–30%
$4,181 Vol.
99%
Wahls Vence
$238 Vol.
1%
Primary elections in Iowa are scheduled to be held on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Iowa Democratic Senate Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Iowa, such as official statewide results published by the Iowa Secretary of State (https://sos.iowa.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Josh Turek secured the Democratic nomination for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat in the June 2 primary, defeating state Sen. Zach Wahls by roughly 25 percentage points according to certified results and projections. National party support, substantial outside spending favoring Turek, and voter preference for his profile as a state representative and Paralympic athlete contributed to the outcome in this two-candidate contest. The market’s near-certain pricing on a 20–30% margin aligns with these vote totals, while low probabilities on other ranges reflect limited remaining uncertainty around final certification or minor adjustments. A recount or delayed official canvass could still shift the exact margin within a narrow band, though historical patterns in Iowa primaries suggest such changes are rare once initial counts stabilize.
Primary elections in Iowa are scheduled to be held on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Iowa Democratic Senate Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Iowa, such as official statewide results published by the Iowa Secretary of State (https://sos.iowa.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Iowa Democratic Senate Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Iowa, such as official statewide results published by the Iowa Secretary of State (https://sos.iowa.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 2, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$5,187Data de Término
2 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 2, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Iowa are scheduled to be held on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Iowa Democratic Senate Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Iowa, such as official statewide results published by the Iowa Secretary of State (https://sos.iowa.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Josh Turek secured the Democratic nomination for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat in the June 2 primary, defeating state Sen. Zach Wahls by roughly 25 percentage points according to certified results and projections. National party support, substantial outside spending favoring Turek, and voter preference for his profile as a state representative and Paralympic athlete contributed to the outcome in this two-candidate contest. The market’s near-certain pricing on a 20–30% margin aligns with these vote totals, while low probabilities on other ranges reflect limited remaining uncertainty around final certification or minor adjustments. A recount or delayed official canvass could still shift the exact margin within a narrow band, though historical patterns in Iowa primaries suggest such changes are rare once initial counts stabilize.
Primary elections in Iowa are scheduled to be held on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Iowa Democratic Senate Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Iowa, such as official statewide results published by the Iowa Secretary of State (https://sos.iowa.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Iowa Democratic Senate Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Iowa, such as official statewide results published by the Iowa Secretary of State (https://sos.iowa.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$5,187Data de Término
2 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 2, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Josh Turek secured the Democratic nomination for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat in the June 2 primary, defeating state Sen. Zach Wahls by roughly 25 percentage points according to certified results and projections. National party support, substantial outside spending favoring Turek, and voter preference for his profile as a state representative and Paralympic athlete contributed to the outcome in this two-candidate contest. The market’s near-certain pricing on a 20–30% margin aligns with these vote totals, while low probabilities on other ranges reflect limited remaining uncertainty around final certification or minor adjustments. A recount or delayed official canvass could still shift the exact margin within a narrow band, though historical patterns in Iowa primaries suggest such changes are rare once initial counts stabilize.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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