Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa’s reelection bid anchors trader consensus in California’s 21st congressional district, a Central Valley seat that shifted modestly leftward after redistricting and now leans Democratic by roughly six points based on recent presidential voting. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all rate the race Likely Democratic ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, reflecting Costa’s long tenure, moderate positioning, and established fundraising edge. With no major Republican challengers emerging to close the gap and voter registration favoring Democrats, the implied probability of a Democratic hold remains elevated, though the November general election outcome could still shift if turnout patterns or late primary results alter the top-two matchup.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Casa do CA-21
Vencedor da eleição para a Casa do CA-21
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
88%
Partido Republicano
12%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$2,884 Vol.
88%
Partido Republicano
$1,394 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa’s reelection bid anchors trader consensus in California’s 21st congressional district, a Central Valley seat that shifted modestly leftward after redistricting and now leans Democratic by roughly six points based on recent presidential voting. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all rate the race Likely Democratic ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, reflecting Costa’s long tenure, moderate positioning, and established fundraising edge. With no major Republican challengers emerging to close the gap and voter registration favoring Democrats, the implied probability of a Democratic hold remains elevated, though the November general election outcome could still shift if turnout patterns or late primary results alter the top-two matchup.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$4,278Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa’s reelection bid anchors trader consensus in California’s 21st congressional district, a Central Valley seat that shifted modestly leftward after redistricting and now leans Democratic by roughly six points based on recent presidential voting. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all rate the race Likely Democratic ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, reflecting Costa’s long tenure, moderate positioning, and established fundraising edge. With no major Republican challengers emerging to close the gap and voter registration favoring Democrats, the implied probability of a Democratic hold remains elevated, though the November general election outcome could still shift if turnout patterns or late primary results alter the top-two matchup.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$4,278Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa’s reelection bid anchors trader consensus in California’s 21st congressional district, a Central Valley seat that shifted modestly leftward after redistricting and now leans Democratic by roughly six points based on recent presidential voting. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all rate the race Likely Democratic ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, reflecting Costa’s long tenure, moderate positioning, and established fundraising edge. With no major Republican challengers emerging to close the gap and voter registration favoring Democrats, the implied probability of a Democratic hold remains elevated, though the November general election outcome could still shift if turnout patterns or late primary results alter the top-two matchup.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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