Incumbent Jim Costa holds a commanding lead in California's 21st congressional district race due to his established position in a Central Valley seat with a modest Democratic lean, reflected in a D+5 partisan voting index and multiple nonpartisan ratings classifying it as Likely Democratic. Costa advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with 42 percent of the vote against Kyle Kirkland's 26 percent, bolstered by superior fundraising exceeding $1.3 million compared to Kirkland's roughly $340,000. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for Costa aligns with the district's recent history, including his 52.6 percent win in 2024. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen national political realignment, major late-breaking scandal, or health event affecting the incumbent before the November 3 general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Casa do CA-21
Vencedor da eleição para a Casa do CA-21
$27,331 Vol.
$27,331 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Jim Costa (D)
94%
Kyle Kirkland (R)
7%
$27,331 Vol.
$27,331 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Jim Costa (D)
$15,163 Vol.
94%
Kyle Kirkland (R)
$12,168 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Jim Costa holds a commanding lead in California's 21st congressional district race due to his established position in a Central Valley seat with a modest Democratic lean, reflected in a D+5 partisan voting index and multiple nonpartisan ratings classifying it as Likely Democratic. Costa advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with 42 percent of the vote against Kyle Kirkland's 26 percent, bolstered by superior fundraising exceeding $1.3 million compared to Kirkland's roughly $340,000. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for Costa aligns with the district's recent history, including his 52.6 percent win in 2024. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen national political realignment, major late-breaking scandal, or health event affecting the incumbent before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$27,331Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Jim Costa holds a commanding lead in California's 21st congressional district race due to his established position in a Central Valley seat with a modest Democratic lean, reflected in a D+5 partisan voting index and multiple nonpartisan ratings classifying it as Likely Democratic. Costa advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with 42 percent of the vote against Kyle Kirkland's 26 percent, bolstered by superior fundraising exceeding $1.3 million compared to Kirkland's roughly $340,000. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for Costa aligns with the district's recent history, including his 52.6 percent win in 2024. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen national political realignment, major late-breaking scandal, or health event affecting the incumbent before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$27,331Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Jim Costa holds a commanding lead in California's 21st congressional district race due to his established position in a Central Valley seat with a modest Democratic lean, reflected in a D+5 partisan voting index and multiple nonpartisan ratings classifying it as Likely Democratic. Costa advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with 42 percent of the vote against Kyle Kirkland's 26 percent, bolstered by superior fundraising exceeding $1.3 million compared to Kirkland's roughly $340,000. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for Costa aligns with the district's recent history, including his 52.6 percent win in 2024. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen national political realignment, major late-breaking scandal, or health event affecting the incumbent before the November 3 general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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