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icon for Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Deputados do CA-22
Política·Eleições Para A Câmara

Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Deputados do CA-22

icon for Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Deputados do CA-22
Política·Eleições Para A Câmara

Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Deputados do CA-22

Polymarket

$11,708 Vol.

Polymarket

$11,708 Vol.

icon for Partido Democrata

Partido Democrata

$6,063 Vol.

87%

icon for Partido Republicano

Partido Republicano

$5,645 Vol.

14%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting via California Proposition 50, approved by voters in November 2025, shifted CA-22 toward a more competitive or slight Democratic lean by altering boundaries in the Central Valley, reducing the prior Republican edge so that the 2024 presidential results would have favored Trump by only two points. Incumbent Republican David Valadao advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 40.7% alongside Democrat Randy Villegas at 32.4%, setting up a general election matchup on November 3 where recent polling shows Villegas holding narrow leads around 44-48%. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or lean Democratic in several cases, reflecting the district's updated voter registration (Democrats at 42%) and the challenger's grassroots momentum against an incumbent with a history of narrow victories. Trader consensus prices align with these developments, assigning the Democratic outcome an 86.5% implied probability.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$11,708
Data de Término
4 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 25, 2025, 2:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting via California Proposition 50, approved by voters in November 2025, shifted CA-22 toward a more competitive or slight Democratic lean by altering boundaries in the Central Valley, reducing the prior Republican edge so that the 2024 presidential results would have favored Trump by only two points. Incumbent Republican David Valadao advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 40.7% alongside Democrat Randy Villegas at 32.4%, setting up a general election matchup on November 3 where recent polling shows Villegas holding narrow leads around 44-48%. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or lean Democratic in several cases, reflecting the district's updated voter registration (Democrats at 42%) and the challenger's grassroots momentum against an incumbent with a history of narrow victories. Trader consensus prices align with these developments, assigning the Democratic outcome an 86.5% implied probability.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$11,708
Data de Término
4 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 25, 2025, 2:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Deputados do CA-22" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Partido Democrata" at 87%, followed by "Partido Republicano" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 87¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Deputados do CA-22" has generated $11.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Deputados do CA-22," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Deputados do CA-22" is "Partido Democrata" at 87%, meaning the market assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Partido Republicano" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Deputados do CA-22" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.