**Republican House retirements and departures have reached 37 as of early August 2026, according to Ballotpedia tracking of announced decisions not to seek re-election.** This total encompasses both members retiring from public office and those pursuing other positions such as governor or Senate seats, placing the count squarely inside the 36–39 bracket that commands 82.7% market probability. The elevated pace reflects a midterm cycle marked by a narrow Republican majority, redistricting effects in several states, and a historically high overall departure rate exceeding recent comparable cycles. Recent announcements have slowed, with most activity concentrated earlier in 2026, and state filing deadlines limit further movement before the November election. Traders therefore assign low probability to ranges outside 36–39, consistent with the current tally and limited remaining window for additional exits.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos membros republicanos da Câmara não concorrerão em 2026?
Quantos membros republicanos da Câmara não concorrerão em 2026?
36–39 82.7%
40–43 6.0%
32–35 3.0%
44+ 1.4%
$71,993 Vol.
$71,993 Vol.
30 ago 2026
<24
1%
24–27
1%
28–31
1%
32–35
3%
36–39
83%
40–43
6%
44+
1%
36–39 82.7%
40–43 6.0%
32–35 3.0%
44+ 1.4%
$71,993 Vol.
$71,993 Vol.
30 ago 2026
<24
$6,266 Vol.
1%
24–27
$20,168 Vol.
1%
28–31
$23,648 Vol.
1%
32–35
$6,274 Vol.
3%
36–39
$8,153 Vol.
83%
40–43
$3,871 Vol.
6%
44+
$3,613 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Republican House retirements and departures have reached 37 as of early August 2026, according to Ballotpedia tracking of announced decisions not to seek re-election.** This total encompasses both members retiring from public office and those pursuing other positions such as governor or Senate seats, placing the count squarely inside the 36–39 bracket that commands 82.7% market probability.
The elevated pace reflects a midterm cycle marked by a narrow Republican majority, redistricting effects in several states, and a historically high overall departure rate exceeding recent comparable cycles. Recent announcements have slowed, with most activity concentrated earlier in 2026, and state filing deadlines limit further movement before the November election. Traders therefore assign low probability to ranges outside 36–39, consistent with the current tally and limited remaining window for additional exits.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$71,993Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Republican House retirements and departures have reached 37 as of early August 2026, according to Ballotpedia tracking of announced decisions not to seek re-election.** This total encompasses both members retiring from public office and those pursuing other positions such as governor or Senate seats, placing the count squarely inside the 36–39 bracket that commands 82.7% market probability.
The elevated pace reflects a midterm cycle marked by a narrow Republican majority, redistricting effects in several states, and a historically high overall departure rate exceeding recent comparable cycles. Recent announcements have slowed, with most activity concentrated earlier in 2026, and state filing deadlines limit further movement before the November election. Traders therefore assign low probability to ranges outside 36–39, consistent with the current tally and limited remaining window for additional exits.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$71,993Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Republican House retirements and departures have reached 37 as of early August 2026, according to Ballotpedia tracking of announced decisions not to seek re-election.** This total encompasses both members retiring from public office and those pursuing other positions such as governor or Senate seats, placing the count squarely inside the 36–39 bracket that commands 82.7% market probability. The elevated pace reflects a midterm cycle marked by a narrow Republican majority, redistricting effects in several states, and a historically high overall departure rate exceeding recent comparable cycles. Recent announcements have slowed, with most activity concentrated earlier in 2026, and state filing deadlines limit further movement before the November election. Traders therefore assign low probability to ranges outside 36–39, consistent with the current tally and limited remaining window for additional exits.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
O número de membros republicanos do Senado que se aposentam em 2026 será exatamente 7?
80%
Sim
O número de membros democratas da Câmara que se aposentarão em 2026 será entre 20 e 23, inclusive?
41%
Sim
Deputados republicanos em exercício não vencerão entre quatro e seis eleições de nomeação no ciclo de 2026?
87%
Sim
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Frequently Asked Questions