As of mid-August 2026, 36–40 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning closely with the 36–39 range that commands roughly 81% implied probability in the market. Primary drivers include a record pace of departures for the cycle, with members citing runs for Senate or governor seats, redistricting impacts, and institutional frustrations amid a narrow Republican majority heading into the midterms. Recent tallies from trackers show 37 Republicans among roughly 60 total House retirements or exits, the highest in decades outside 1992. The market's tight clustering around this band reflects the limited window for additional announcements before the August 31 resolution, though late filings or unexpected shifts could still adjust the final count within a narrow range.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos membros republicanos da Câmara não concorrerão em 2026?
Quantos membros republicanos da Câmara não concorrerão em 2026?
36–39 82.0%
40–43 6.2%
32–35 4.2%
44+ 2.3%
$71,865 Vol.
$71,865 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<24
1%
24–27
2%
28–31
<1%
32–35
4%
36–39
82%
40–43
6%
44+
2%
36–39 82.0%
40–43 6.2%
32–35 4.2%
44+ 2.3%
$71,865 Vol.
$71,865 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<24
$6,266 Vol.
1%
24–27
$20,164 Vol.
2%
28–31
$23,648 Vol.
<1%
32–35
$6,174 Vol.
4%
36–39
$8,153 Vol.
82%
40–43
$3,871 Vol.
6%
44+
$3,589 Vol.
2%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, 36–40 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning closely with the 36–39 range that commands roughly 81% implied probability in the market. Primary drivers include a record pace of departures for the cycle, with members citing runs for Senate or governor seats, redistricting impacts, and institutional frustrations amid a narrow Republican majority heading into the midterms. Recent tallies from trackers show 37 Republicans among roughly 60 total House retirements or exits, the highest in decades outside 1992. The market's tight clustering around this band reflects the limited window for additional announcements before the August 31 resolution, though late filings or unexpected shifts could still adjust the final count within a narrow range.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$71,865Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, 36–40 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning closely with the 36–39 range that commands roughly 81% implied probability in the market. Primary drivers include a record pace of departures for the cycle, with members citing runs for Senate or governor seats, redistricting impacts, and institutional frustrations amid a narrow Republican majority heading into the midterms. Recent tallies from trackers show 37 Republicans among roughly 60 total House retirements or exits, the highest in decades outside 1992. The market's tight clustering around this band reflects the limited window for additional announcements before the August 31 resolution, though late filings or unexpected shifts could still adjust the final count within a narrow range.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$71,865Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of mid-August 2026, 36–40 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning closely with the 36–39 range that commands roughly 81% implied probability in the market. Primary drivers include a record pace of departures for the cycle, with members citing runs for Senate or governor seats, redistricting impacts, and institutional frustrations amid a narrow Republican majority heading into the midterms. Recent tallies from trackers show 37 Republicans among roughly 60 total House retirements or exits, the highest in decades outside 1992. The market's tight clustering around this band reflects the limited window for additional announcements before the August 31 resolution, though late filings or unexpected shifts could still adjust the final count within a narrow range.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
O número de membros republicanos do Senado que se aposentam em 2026 será exatamente 7?
77%
Sim
O número de membros democratas da Câmara que se aposentarão em 2026 será entre 20 e 23, inclusive?
44%
Sim
Deputados republicanos em exercício não vencerão entre quatro e seis eleições de nomeação no ciclo de 2026?
93%
Sim
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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