Recent Democratic primary upsets, including losses by incumbents such as Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York, have already pushed the total of defeated House Democrats to seven or more by mid-August 2026. A broader wave of progressive and outsider challenges in safe Democratic districts, combined with unusually high numbers of contested races, has accelerated this trend beyond historical averages for incumbent defeats. Traders price the 10-12 range highest because additional upcoming primaries and runoffs in states with redrawn maps or strong intra-party opposition could add several more losses without exceeding the upper end of recent cycles. This consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of remaining ballot contests and patterns of primary turnout favoring challengers in low-turnout environments.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado10-12 49.0%
13-15 22.4%
7-9 9.2%
>15 1.6%
$23,421 Vol.
$23,421 Vol.
<3
1%
4-6
<1%
7-9
9%
10-12
49%
13-15
22%
>15
2%
10-12 49.0%
13-15 22.4%
7-9 9.2%
>15 1.6%
$23,421 Vol.
$23,421 Vol.
<3
$1,106 Vol.
1%
4-6
$1,812 Vol.
<1%
7-9
$11,577 Vol.
9%
10-12
$4,514 Vol.
49%
13-15
$2,071 Vol.
22%
>15
$2,341 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Recent Democratic primary upsets, including losses by incumbents such as Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York, have already pushed the total of defeated House Democrats to seven or more by mid-August 2026. A broader wave of progressive and outsider challenges in safe Democratic districts, combined with unusually high numbers of contested races, has accelerated this trend beyond historical averages for incumbent defeats. Traders price the 10-12 range highest because additional upcoming primaries and runoffs in states with redrawn maps or strong intra-party opposition could add several more losses without exceeding the upper end of recent cycles. This consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of remaining ballot contests and patterns of primary turnout favoring challengers in low-turnout environments.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Volume
$23,421Mercado Aberto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Recent Democratic primary upsets, including losses by incumbents such as Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York, have already pushed the total of defeated House Democrats to seven or more by mid-August 2026. A broader wave of progressive and outsider challenges in safe Democratic districts, combined with unusually high numbers of contested races, has accelerated this trend beyond historical averages for incumbent defeats. Traders price the 10-12 range highest because additional upcoming primaries and runoffs in states with redrawn maps or strong intra-party opposition could add several more losses without exceeding the upper end of recent cycles. This consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of remaining ballot contests and patterns of primary turnout favoring challengers in low-turnout environments.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$23,421Mercado Aberto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Democratic primary upsets, including losses by incumbents such as Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York, have already pushed the total of defeated House Democrats to seven or more by mid-August 2026. A broader wave of progressive and outsider challenges in safe Democratic districts, combined with unusually high numbers of contested races, has accelerated this trend beyond historical averages for incumbent defeats. Traders price the 10-12 range highest because additional upcoming primaries and runoffs in states with redrawn maps or strong intra-party opposition could add several more losses without exceeding the upper end of recent cycles. This consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of remaining ballot contests and patterns of primary turnout favoring challengers in low-turnout environments.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
Deputados republicanos em exercício não vencerão entre quatro e seis eleições de nomeação no ciclo de 2026?
93%
Sim
Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
79%
O Partido Republicano terá menos de 22 governos estaduais após as eleições de meio de mandato de 2026?
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Frequently Asked Questions