Traders assign a 98.8% probability that Donald Trump will remain president past June 30, 2026, reflecting the structural barriers to swift removal from office. Presidential succession or removal processes, including impeachment by the House and conviction in the Senate or invocation of the 25th Amendment, typically require extended legislative or executive action that cannot realistically conclude within the next six weeks. No active proceedings or acute health crises have emerged to alter this timeline. While unforeseen events such as a sudden medical emergency or major scandal could theoretically intervene, current political stability and the absence of triggering developments sustain the market's consensus on continuity through the period.