The tight two-week window until May 31 and the absence of any confirmed public events or appearances scheduled to feature physical affection have anchored trader sentiment around a strong “No” at 82.5 percent implied probability. Trump’s recent schedule has centered on policy briefings and international travel without the ceremonial moments that usually prompt such gestures, and his last documented public kiss with Melania occurred on May 6 at the White House military mothers event. While late-breaking photo ops or surprise appearances could still shift momentum, historical patterns show infrequent displays of affection in non-ceremonial settings, leaving little time for the kind of catalyst that would move the market. Traders are pricing in the low odds of an unexpected development materializing before the deadline.