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Política·Trump-Xi Summit

When will Trump leave China?

icon for When will Trump leave China?
Política·Trump-Xi Summit

When will Trump leave China?

May 15 100.0%

May 16 <1%

May 17 <1%

May 18 <1%

Polymarket

$1,516,333 Vol.

May 15 100.0%

May 16 <1%

May 17 <1%

May 18 <1%

Polymarket

$1,516,333 Vol.

May 15

$110,236 Vol.

100%

May 16

$51,534 Vol.

<1%

May 17

$12,104 Vol.

<1%

May 18

$3,024 Vol.

<1%

Após 18 de maio

$1,270,437 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time. A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China. If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”. If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's confirmed departure from Beijing aboard Air Force One on May 15 caps his three-day state visit to China, originally scheduled from May 13-15 following a delay due to the Iran conflict, driving trader consensus to near-certainty at 100% for this date. Official itineraries and live reports detail a farewell ceremony at Beijing Capital International Airport after bilateral meetings and a working lunch with Xi Jinping, focused on trade, Iran, Taiwan, and technology. This aligns with pre-announced timelines from both U.S. and Chinese sources, reflecting diplomatic coordination. Scenarios challenging this—such as unforeseen flight delays, health issues, or extended talks—remain highly improbable given verified takeoff confirmations.

This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time.

A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China.

If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”.

If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,516,333
Data de Término
20 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
May 11, 2026, 4:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time. A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China. If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”. If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Resultado proposto: Yes

Janela de disputa

Final

This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time. A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China. If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”. If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's confirmed departure from Beijing aboard Air Force One on May 15 caps his three-day state visit to China, originally scheduled from May 13-15 following a delay due to the Iran conflict, driving trader consensus to near-certainty at 100% for this date. Official itineraries and live reports detail a farewell ceremony at Beijing Capital International Airport after bilateral meetings and a working lunch with Xi Jinping, focused on trade, Iran, Taiwan, and technology. This aligns with pre-announced timelines from both U.S. and Chinese sources, reflecting diplomatic coordination. Scenarios challenging this—such as unforeseen flight delays, health issues, or extended talks—remain highly improbable given verified takeoff confirmations.

This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time.

A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China.

If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”.

If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,516,333
Data de Término
20 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
May 11, 2026, 4:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time. A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China. If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”. If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Resultado proposto: Yes

Janela de disputa

Final

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"When will Trump leave China?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "May 15" at 100%, followed by "May 16" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "When will Trump leave China?" has generated $1.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on May 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "When will Trump leave China?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "When will Trump leave China?" is "May 15" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "May 16" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "When will Trump leave China?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.