Early generic ballot polling shows Democrats holding a modest single-digit advantage in the national House popular vote, aligning with the historical midterm pattern of gains for the out-of-power party under a Republican president. This dynamic, combined with ongoing redistricting in multiple states and narrow Republican majorities following 2024, has shaped trader assessments of likely margins. With more than five months until primaries and over eighteen months until November 2026, the elevated share on unspecified outcomes underscores substantial uncertainty around final vote distribution. Upcoming polling trends, fundraising reports, and any major legislative or executive developments could further shift probabilities across the listed ranges before election night.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoIntercalares de 2026: Margem de Vitória do Voto Popular da Casa
Intercalares de 2026: Margem de Vitória do Voto Popular da Casa
Democratas 8-10% 16%
Democratas 10-12% 13%
Republicanos 0-2% 9.6%
Democratas 6-8% 10%
$34,974 Vol.
$34,974 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratas 16%+
3%
Democratas 14-16%
4%
Democratas 12-14%
4%
Democratas 10-12%
13%
Democratas 8-10%
16%
Democratas 6-8%
10%
Democratas 4-6%
7%
Democratas 2-4%
4%
Democratas 0-2%
5%
Republicanos 0-2%
10%
Republicanos 2-4%
8%
Republicanos 4-6%
2%
Republicanos 6%+
3%
Democratas 8-10% 16%
Democratas 10-12% 13%
Republicanos 0-2% 9.6%
Democratas 6-8% 10%
$34,974 Vol.
$34,974 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratas 16%+
$804 Vol.
3%
Democratas 14-16%
$476 Vol.
4%
Democratas 12-14%
$462 Vol.
4%
Democratas 10-12%
$830 Vol.
13%
Democratas 8-10%
$1,555 Vol.
16%
Democratas 6-8%
$693 Vol.
10%
Democratas 4-6%
$258 Vol.
7%
Democratas 2-4%
$1,012 Vol.
4%
Democratas 0-2%
$889 Vol.
5%
Republicanos 0-2%
$919 Vol.
10%
Republicanos 2-4%
$26,044 Vol.
8%
Republicanos 4-6%
$250 Vol.
2%
Republicanos 6%+
$782 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Early generic ballot polling shows Democrats holding a modest single-digit advantage in the national House popular vote, aligning with the historical midterm pattern of gains for the out-of-power party under a Republican president. This dynamic, combined with ongoing redistricting in multiple states and narrow Republican majorities following 2024, has shaped trader assessments of likely margins. With more than five months until primaries and over eighteen months until November 2026, the elevated share on unspecified outcomes underscores substantial uncertainty around final vote distribution. Upcoming polling trends, fundraising reports, and any major legislative or executive developments could further shift probabilities across the listed ranges before election night.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$34,974Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Early generic ballot polling shows Democrats holding a modest single-digit advantage in the national House popular vote, aligning with the historical midterm pattern of gains for the out-of-power party under a Republican president. This dynamic, combined with ongoing redistricting in multiple states and narrow Republican majorities following 2024, has shaped trader assessments of likely margins. With more than five months until primaries and over eighteen months until November 2026, the elevated share on unspecified outcomes underscores substantial uncertainty around final vote distribution. Upcoming polling trends, fundraising reports, and any major legislative or executive developments could further shift probabilities across the listed ranges before election night.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$34,974Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Early generic ballot polling shows Democrats holding a modest single-digit advantage in the national House popular vote, aligning with the historical midterm pattern of gains for the out-of-power party under a Republican president. This dynamic, combined with ongoing redistricting in multiple states and narrow Republican majorities following 2024, has shaped trader assessments of likely margins. With more than five months until primaries and over eighteen months until November 2026, the elevated share on unspecified outcomes underscores substantial uncertainty around final vote distribution. Upcoming polling trends, fundraising reports, and any major legislative or executive developments could further shift probabilities across the listed ranges before election night.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions