Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago on September 4 points to a high in the upper 80s amid partly to mostly cloudy skies, a 40-50% chance of showers or thunderstorms, and moderating east-to-southeast winds that may enhance lake-effect cooling near the shoreline. These conditions explain why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 86–91 °F, with 88–89 °F narrowly leading. Above-average warmth relative to the 1991–2020 normal of roughly 80 °F stems from lingering heat and humidity following early-September readings near 95 °F, while the spread in outcomes reflects typical short-range uncertainties in cloud timing, convective initiation, and boundary-layer mixing that can shift daytime maxima by several degrees. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Chicago no dia 4 de setembro?
Temperatura mais alta em Chicago no dia 4 de setembro?
88-89°F 25%
32,2-32,8°C 22%
86-87°F 22%
92-93°F 11%
NOVO
NOVO
4 set 2026
79°F ou menos
1%
80-81°F
3%
82-83°F
4%
84-85°F
10%
86-87°F
22%
88-89°F
25%
32,2-32,8°C
22%
92-93°F
11%
94-95°F
5%
96-97°F
2%
98°F ou mais
2%
88-89°F 25%
32,2-32,8°C 22%
86-87°F 22%
92-93°F 11%
NOVO
NOVO
4 set 2026
79°F ou menos
$0 Vol.
1%
80-81°F
$7 Vol.
3%
82-83°F
$68 Vol.
4%
84-85°F
$146 Vol.
10%
86-87°F
$215 Vol.
22%
88-89°F
$352 Vol.
25%
32,2-32,8°C
$497 Vol.
22%
92-93°F
$327 Vol.
11%
94-95°F
$338 Vol.
5%
96-97°F
$193 Vol.
2%
98°F ou mais
$80 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago on September 4 points to a high in the upper 80s amid partly to mostly cloudy skies, a 40-50% chance of showers or thunderstorms, and moderating east-to-southeast winds that may enhance lake-effect cooling near the shoreline. These conditions explain why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 86–91 °F, with 88–89 °F narrowly leading. Above-average warmth relative to the 1991–2020 normal of roughly 80 °F stems from lingering heat and humidity following early-September readings near 95 °F, while the spread in outcomes reflects typical short-range uncertainties in cloud timing, convective initiation, and boundary-layer mixing that can shift daytime maxima by several degrees. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 2, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,223Data de Término
4 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:56 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago on September 4 points to a high in the upper 80s amid partly to mostly cloudy skies, a 40-50% chance of showers or thunderstorms, and moderating east-to-southeast winds that may enhance lake-effect cooling near the shoreline. These conditions explain why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 86–91 °F, with 88–89 °F narrowly leading. Above-average warmth relative to the 1991–2020 normal of roughly 80 °F stems from lingering heat and humidity following early-September readings near 95 °F, while the spread in outcomes reflects typical short-range uncertainties in cloud timing, convective initiation, and boundary-layer mixing that can shift daytime maxima by several degrees. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,223Data de Término
4 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:56 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago on September 4 points to a high in the upper 80s amid partly to mostly cloudy skies, a 40-50% chance of showers or thunderstorms, and moderating east-to-southeast winds that may enhance lake-effect cooling near the shoreline. These conditions explain why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 86–91 °F, with 88–89 °F narrowly leading. Above-average warmth relative to the 1991–2020 normal of roughly 80 °F stems from lingering heat and humidity following early-September readings near 95 °F, while the spread in outcomes reflects typical short-range uncertainties in cloud timing, convective initiation, and boundary-layer mixing that can shift daytime maxima by several degrees. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions