Recent short-range forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and consensus models indicate a typical early-summer pattern of showers and high humidity, pointing to a daily maximum near 30°C on June 19 with moderate rain likely suppressing peaks. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 30–31°C because small differences in timing of cloud cover, convective showers, or localized clearing can shift the observed high by 1–2°C; stronger southerly flow or reduced rainfall would favor the upper end while persistent overcast conditions would cap readings near 29–30°C. Above-normal seasonal temperatures driven by long-term warming trends and neutral-to-weak ENSO conditions provide a slight upward bias, yet the narrow spread of market-implied odds reflects the inherent uncertainty in 48-hour precipitation and insolation forecasts for a subtropical coastal location. Updated model runs and the next official HKO bulletin will likely be the next catalysts for any meaningful shift.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Hong Kong on June 19?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 19?
31°C 37%
30°C 29%
32°C 17%
29°C 16%
NOVO
$13,848 Vol.
NOVO
$13,848 Vol.
19 jun 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
16%
30°C
29%
31°C
37%
32°C
17%
33°C
3%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 37%
30°C 29%
32°C 17%
29°C 16%
NOVO
$13,848 Vol.
NOVO
$13,848 Vol.
19 jun 2026
25°C or below
$485 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$185 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$922 Vol.
1%
28°C
$966 Vol.
3%
29°C
$1,411 Vol.
16%
30°C
$3,525 Vol.
29%
31°C
$2,677 Vol.
37%
32°C
$1,278 Vol.
17%
33°C
$1,013 Vol.
3%
34°C
$503 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$882 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent short-range forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and consensus models indicate a typical early-summer pattern of showers and high humidity, pointing to a daily maximum near 30°C on June 19 with moderate rain likely suppressing peaks. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 30–31°C because small differences in timing of cloud cover, convective showers, or localized clearing can shift the observed high by 1–2°C; stronger southerly flow or reduced rainfall would favor the upper end while persistent overcast conditions would cap readings near 29–30°C. Above-normal seasonal temperatures driven by long-term warming trends and neutral-to-weak ENSO conditions provide a slight upward bias, yet the narrow spread of market-implied odds reflects the inherent uncertainty in 48-hour precipitation and insolation forecasts for a subtropical coastal location. Updated model runs and the next official HKO bulletin will likely be the next catalysts for any meaningful shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 17, 2026, 12:53 AM ET
Volume
$13,848Data de Término
19 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 17, 2026, 12:53 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent short-range forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and consensus models indicate a typical early-summer pattern of showers and high humidity, pointing to a daily maximum near 30°C on June 19 with moderate rain likely suppressing peaks. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 30–31°C because small differences in timing of cloud cover, convective showers, or localized clearing can shift the observed high by 1–2°C; stronger southerly flow or reduced rainfall would favor the upper end while persistent overcast conditions would cap readings near 29–30°C. Above-normal seasonal temperatures driven by long-term warming trends and neutral-to-weak ENSO conditions provide a slight upward bias, yet the narrow spread of market-implied odds reflects the inherent uncertainty in 48-hour precipitation and insolation forecasts for a subtropical coastal location. Updated model runs and the next official HKO bulletin will likely be the next catalysts for any meaningful shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$13,848Data de Término
19 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 17, 2026, 12:53 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and consensus models indicate a typical early-summer pattern of showers and high humidity, pointing to a daily maximum near 30°C on June 19 with moderate rain likely suppressing peaks. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 30–31°C because small differences in timing of cloud cover, convective showers, or localized clearing can shift the observed high by 1–2°C; stronger southerly flow or reduced rainfall would favor the upper end while persistent overcast conditions would cap readings near 29–30°C. Above-normal seasonal temperatures driven by long-term warming trends and neutral-to-weak ENSO conditions provide a slight upward bias, yet the narrow spread of market-implied odds reflects the inherent uncertainty in 48-hour precipitation and insolation forecasts for a subtropical coastal location. Updated model runs and the next official HKO bulletin will likely be the next catalysts for any meaningful shift.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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