Recent National Weather Service forecasts point to a persistent marine layer and moderate onshore flow limiting San Francisco's July 5 high to the mid-to-upper 60s, supporting the market's leading 68-69°F bin at 25% implied probability. Variable fog depth, cloud timing, and local wind shifts create substantial uncertainty, spreading probability across multiple 2°F brackets and reflecting typical summer microclimate variability along the immediate coast. Historical July averages near 70°F provide context, yet current model consensus favors cooler conditions than inland areas. Updated short-range guidance and afternoon observations from official stations will likely drive any late shifts in trader positioning before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in San Francisco on July 5?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 5?
68-69°F 30%
66-67°F 25%
70-71°F 17%
64-65°F 13%
NOVO
NOVO
5 jul 2026
55°F or below
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
3%
62-63°F
7%
64-65°F
13%
66-67°F
25%
68-69°F
30%
70-71°F
17%
72-73°F
6%
74°F or higher
3%
68-69°F 30%
66-67°F 25%
70-71°F 17%
64-65°F 13%
NOVO
NOVO
5 jul 2026
55°F or below
$85 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$185 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$50 Vol.
1%
60-61°F
$161 Vol.
3%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
7%
64-65°F
$2 Vol.
13%
66-67°F
$148 Vol.
25%
68-69°F
$103 Vol.
30%
70-71°F
$351 Vol.
17%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
6%
74°F or higher
$163 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts point to a persistent marine layer and moderate onshore flow limiting San Francisco's July 5 high to the mid-to-upper 60s, supporting the market's leading 68-69°F bin at 25% implied probability. Variable fog depth, cloud timing, and local wind shifts create substantial uncertainty, spreading probability across multiple 2°F brackets and reflecting typical summer microclimate variability along the immediate coast. Historical July averages near 70°F provide context, yet current model consensus favors cooler conditions than inland areas. Updated short-range guidance and afternoon observations from official stations will likely drive any late shifts in trader positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$1,249Data de Término
5 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts point to a persistent marine layer and moderate onshore flow limiting San Francisco's July 5 high to the mid-to-upper 60s, supporting the market's leading 68-69°F bin at 25% implied probability. Variable fog depth, cloud timing, and local wind shifts create substantial uncertainty, spreading probability across multiple 2°F brackets and reflecting typical summer microclimate variability along the immediate coast. Historical July averages near 70°F provide context, yet current model consensus favors cooler conditions than inland areas. Updated short-range guidance and afternoon observations from official stations will likely drive any late shifts in trader positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,249Data de Término
5 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts point to a persistent marine layer and moderate onshore flow limiting San Francisco's July 5 high to the mid-to-upper 60s, supporting the market's leading 68-69°F bin at 25% implied probability. Variable fog depth, cloud timing, and local wind shifts create substantial uncertainty, spreading probability across multiple 2°F brackets and reflecting typical summer microclimate variability along the immediate coast. Historical July averages near 70°F provide context, yet current model consensus favors cooler conditions than inland areas. Updated short-range guidance and afternoon observations from official stations will likely drive any late shifts in trader positioning before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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