**Subtropical summer conditions in Taipei typically produce daily highs near 32–34°C in early August, driven by high solar insolation, elevated humidity, and the influence of the Pacific high-pressure system.** The market's heaviest weighting on 32°C or higher (55.5%) aligns with this climatological baseline, while the combined probability for 31°C or below (about 44.5%) reflects uncertainty from Typhoon Dolphin. As of August 6, 2026, the storm center remains well east of Taiwan but is forecast to track closer by the weekend, with outer rainbands potentially increasing cloud cover, precipitation, and localized cooling on August 8. Central Weather Administration guidance and short-range models indicate this could cap daytime maxima near or below 30°C in northern Taiwan if rain arrives during peak heating hours, though any weakening or more northerly track would allow temperatures to reach the seasonal norm. Traders appear to assign meaningful but not dominant weight to these storm-related variables, consistent with historical precedent that typhoon proximity often moderates but does not always suppress highs below 32°C in Taipei.