Traders are pricing Tokyo’s July 16 maximum near 33–34 °C because operational forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate above-normal summer temperatures driven by a strengthened Pacific High. Recent ensemble runs cluster daytime highs in the low-to-mid 30s °C, with urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo adding 1–2 °C above surrounding areas. Key variables separating the closely matched 33 °C and 34 °C outcomes include minor differences in model timing of any sea-breeze onset and boundary-layer moisture, which can shift peak readings by 1 °C. With resolution less than 48 hours away, the next 12–24 h of updated guidance from JMA will likely tighten the distribution around the current market-implied range.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Tóquio no dia 16 de julho?
Temperatura mais alta em Tóquio no dia 16 de julho?
34°C 36%
33°C 28%
35°C 14%
32°C 13%
NOVO
$10,299 Vol.
NOVO
$10,299 Vol.
16 jul 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
3%
32°C
13%
33°C
28%
34°C
36%
35°C
14%
36°C
4%
37°C
1%
38°C or higher
<1%
34°C 36%
33°C 28%
35°C 14%
32°C 13%
NOVO
$10,299 Vol.
NOVO
$10,299 Vol.
16 jul 2026
28°C or below
$1,527 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$434 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$2,882 Vol.
1%
31°C
$212 Vol.
3%
32°C
$441 Vol.
13%
33°C
$342 Vol.
28%
34°C
$319 Vol.
36%
35°C
$991 Vol.
14%
36°C
$1,100 Vol.
4%
37°C
$1,443 Vol.
1%
38°C or higher
$608 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders are pricing Tokyo’s July 16 maximum near 33–34 °C because operational forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate above-normal summer temperatures driven by a strengthened Pacific High. Recent ensemble runs cluster daytime highs in the low-to-mid 30s °C, with urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo adding 1–2 °C above surrounding areas. Key variables separating the closely matched 33 °C and 34 °C outcomes include minor differences in model timing of any sea-breeze onset and boundary-layer moisture, which can shift peak readings by 1 °C. With resolution less than 48 hours away, the next 12–24 h of updated guidance from JMA will likely tighten the distribution around the current market-implied range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$10,299Data de Término
16 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders are pricing Tokyo’s July 16 maximum near 33–34 °C because operational forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate above-normal summer temperatures driven by a strengthened Pacific High. Recent ensemble runs cluster daytime highs in the low-to-mid 30s °C, with urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo adding 1–2 °C above surrounding areas. Key variables separating the closely matched 33 °C and 34 °C outcomes include minor differences in model timing of any sea-breeze onset and boundary-layer moisture, which can shift peak readings by 1 °C. With resolution less than 48 hours away, the next 12–24 h of updated guidance from JMA will likely tighten the distribution around the current market-implied range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,299Data de Término
16 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders are pricing Tokyo’s July 16 maximum near 33–34 °C because operational forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate above-normal summer temperatures driven by a strengthened Pacific High. Recent ensemble runs cluster daytime highs in the low-to-mid 30s °C, with urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo adding 1–2 °C above surrounding areas. Key variables separating the closely matched 33 °C and 34 °C outcomes include minor differences in model timing of any sea-breeze onset and boundary-layer moisture, which can shift peak readings by 1 °C. With resolution less than 48 hours away, the next 12–24 h of updated guidance from JMA will likely tighten the distribution around the current market-implied range.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions