Forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration converge on a maximum temperature of 30–32°C in Zhengzhou on August 21, with partly cloudy skies, scattered thundershowers, and light northeasterly winds expected to limit peak insolation and surface heating. These conditions produce the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the 30°C, 31°C, and 32°C+ outcomes, as modest variations in cloud timing or convective development can shift the daily high by 1–2°C. Historical August climatology shows average highs near 31°C, but persistent humidity and recent shower activity have moderated extremes relative to clearer periods earlier in the month. Updated model runs and official briefings through the evening of August 20 will provide the final guidance ahead of market resolution.