Global seismicity during the August 10–16 window reflects typical background rates, with USGS data showing roughly 10–20 magnitude 5.5+ events per week on average worldwide. Early detections include a M5.6 in Alaska on August 10 and lingering effects from prior M6.3 events in the Kermadec Islands and Philippines, alongside a M7.4 in Colombia earlier in the month that could generate aftershocks. Trader odds spread across 6–10 events highlight uncertainty from variable aftershock productivity, potential new sequences along subduction zones, and the inherent randomness of tectonic release; no major swarm or forecast anomaly has emerged to shift the distribution decisively. Upcoming USGS catalog updates will clarify the final tally.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos sismos de 5,5 ou mais de 10 de agosto a 16 de agosto?
Quantos sismos de 5,5 ou mais de 10 de agosto a 16 de agosto?
≤6 28.9%
13 21%
7 15.6%
8 14%
NOVO
NOVO
9 ago 2026
≤6
29%
7
16%
8
19%
9
12%
10
38%
11
9%
12
7%
13
21%
>13
8%
≤6 28.9%
13 21%
7 15.6%
8 14%
NOVO
NOVO
9 ago 2026
≤6
$3,867 Vol.
29%
7
$297 Vol.
16%
8
$55 Vol.
19%
9
$67 Vol.
12%
10
$101 Vol.
38%
11
$50 Vol.
9%
12
$65 Vol.
7%
13
$21 Vol.
21%
>13
$3,791 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity during the August 10–16 window reflects typical background rates, with USGS data showing roughly 10–20 magnitude 5.5+ events per week on average worldwide. Early detections include a M5.6 in Alaska on August 10 and lingering effects from prior M6.3 events in the Kermadec Islands and Philippines, alongside a M7.4 in Colombia earlier in the month that could generate aftershocks. Trader odds spread across 6–10 events highlight uncertainty from variable aftershock productivity, potential new sequences along subduction zones, and the inherent randomness of tectonic release; no major swarm or forecast anomaly has emerged to shift the distribution decisively. Upcoming USGS catalog updates will clarify the final tally.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ET
Volume
$8,315Data de Término
17 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity during the August 10–16 window reflects typical background rates, with USGS data showing roughly 10–20 magnitude 5.5+ events per week on average worldwide. Early detections include a M5.6 in Alaska on August 10 and lingering effects from prior M6.3 events in the Kermadec Islands and Philippines, alongside a M7.4 in Colombia earlier in the month that could generate aftershocks. Trader odds spread across 6–10 events highlight uncertainty from variable aftershock productivity, potential new sequences along subduction zones, and the inherent randomness of tectonic release; no major swarm or forecast anomaly has emerged to shift the distribution decisively. Upcoming USGS catalog updates will clarify the final tally.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$8,315Data de Término
17 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismicity during the August 10–16 window reflects typical background rates, with USGS data showing roughly 10–20 magnitude 5.5+ events per week on average worldwide. Early detections include a M5.6 in Alaska on August 10 and lingering effects from prior M6.3 events in the Kermadec Islands and Philippines, alongside a M7.4 in Colombia earlier in the month that could generate aftershocks. Trader odds spread across 6–10 events highlight uncertainty from variable aftershock productivity, potential new sequences along subduction zones, and the inherent randomness of tectonic release; no major swarm or forecast anomaly has emerged to shift the distribution decisively. Upcoming USGS catalog updates will clarify the final tally.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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