Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows no magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes in the first two days of the August 10–16 window, consistent with the prior week's quiet period and supporting the market's emphasis on one event at 55.5% implied probability. Worldwide, M6.5+ events average roughly one to two per week, concentrated along subduction zones such as the Japan Trench, Philippines, and Kermadec arc, with short-term variability typical in the absence of aftershock sequences or foreshock activity. Recent M6.3 events near those regions provide analogs but fall below threshold, and no elevated strain indicators or model consensus currently suggest clustering. Resolution on August 16 will depend on any late-window detections in high-activity zones.