The weak July nonfarm payrolls report, showing a surprise decline of 23,000 jobs against consensus expectations near 80,000 alongside 103,000 in downward revisions to prior months, has anchored trader sentiment for August, pushing the three-month average gain down to just 20,000. This cooling trajectory, evident in broad-based softness across government, retail, and leisure sectors plus a dip in labor force participation to 61.4%, has compressed probabilities around the lower outcomes while leaving 50k–100k and 0–50k closely matched at 30.5% and 27.5% amid ongoing uncertainty. Wage growth easing to 3.2% year-over-year and mixed leading indicators such as jobless claims further highlight the lack of clear momentum, with the August release expected to test whether the recent contraction persists or stabilizes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado50 mil – 100 mil 31%
0 – 50 mil 28%
-50k – 0 14%
150k+ 13%
$13,897 Vol.
$13,897 Vol.
<-50k
8%
-50k – 0
14%
0 – 50 mil
28%
50 mil – 100 mil
31%
100k – 150k
12%
150k+
17%
50 mil – 100 mil 31%
0 – 50 mil 28%
-50k – 0 14%
150k+ 13%
$13,897 Vol.
$13,897 Vol.
<-50k
8%
-50k – 0
14%
0 – 50 mil
28%
50 mil – 100 mil
31%
100k – 150k
12%
150k+
17%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Mercado Aberto: Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Fonte de resolução
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...The weak July nonfarm payrolls report, showing a surprise decline of 23,000 jobs against consensus expectations near 80,000 alongside 103,000 in downward revisions to prior months, has anchored trader sentiment for August, pushing the three-month average gain down to just 20,000. This cooling trajectory, evident in broad-based softness across government, retail, and leisure sectors plus a dip in labor force participation to 61.4%, has compressed probabilities around the lower outcomes while leaving 50k–100k and 0–50k closely matched at 30.5% and 27.5% amid ongoing uncertainty. Wage growth easing to 3.2% year-over-year and mixed leading indicators such as jobless claims further highlight the lack of clear momentum, with the August release expected to test whether the recent contraction persists or stabilizes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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