Recent Israeli opinion polls ahead of the October 27, 2026 Knesset election consistently project Likud at 21–25 seats, well below its current 32 (or 36 including the New Hope merger). This decline stems from sustained public dissatisfaction with the party’s handling of the post-October 7 security situation, fallout from the judicial overhaul, and coalition strains over Haredi draft exemptions. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party has emerged as a direct competitor, frequently matching or exceeding Likud in seat projections while the broader opposition bloc leads the governing coalition. Internal Likud tensions ahead of its August 17 primaries have added further pressure. These patterns across multiple pollsters underpin the strong trader consensus that Likud will lose seats.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado86% chance
$11,046 Vol.
$11,046 Vol.
27 out 2026
86% chance
$11,046 Vol.
$11,046 Vol.
27 out 2026
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent Israeli opinion polls ahead of the October 27, 2026 Knesset election consistently project Likud at 21–25 seats, well below its current 32 (or 36 including the New Hope merger). This decline stems from sustained public dissatisfaction with the party’s handling of the post-October 7 security situation, fallout from the judicial overhaul, and coalition strains over Haredi draft exemptions. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party has emerged as a direct competitor, frequently matching or exceeding Likud in seat projections while the broader opposition bloc leads the governing coalition. Internal Likud tensions ahead of its August 17 primaries have added further pressure. These patterns across multiple pollsters underpin the strong trader consensus that Likud will lose seats.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Mercado Aberto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Volume
$11,046Data de Término
27 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent Israeli opinion polls ahead of the October 27, 2026 Knesset election consistently project Likud at 21–25 seats, well below its current 32 (or 36 including the New Hope merger). This decline stems from sustained public dissatisfaction with the party’s handling of the post-October 7 security situation, fallout from the judicial overhaul, and coalition strains over Haredi draft exemptions. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party has emerged as a direct competitor, frequently matching or exceeding Likud in seat projections while the broader opposition bloc leads the governing coalition. Internal Likud tensions ahead of its August 17 primaries have added further pressure. These patterns across multiple pollsters underpin the strong trader consensus that Likud will lose seats.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$11,046Data de Término
27 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Israeli opinion polls ahead of the October 27, 2026 Knesset election consistently project Likud at 21–25 seats, well below its current 32 (or 36 including the New Hope merger). This decline stems from sustained public dissatisfaction with the party’s handling of the post-October 7 security situation, fallout from the judicial overhaul, and coalition strains over Haredi draft exemptions. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party has emerged as a direct competitor, frequently matching or exceeding Likud in seat projections while the broader opposition bloc leads the governing coalition. Internal Likud tensions ahead of its August 17 primaries have added further pressure. These patterns across multiple pollsters underpin the strong trader consensus that Likud will lose seats.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions