Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s repeated public commitments to lead Likud into the upcoming Knesset elections, combined with his coalition’s recent submission of legislation to dissolve parliament and advance the vote to late August or September, underpin trader expectations that he will remain on the ballot beyond July 31. These steps allow his bloc to set the electoral timeline amid ongoing coalition strains over draft exemptions and security priorities. Recent polling shows the governing parties hovering near or below a slim majority, with opposition figures such as Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid consolidating support, yet no verified statements or procedural moves indicate an imminent withdrawal by the prime minister. The market’s 86.5 percent implied probability on “No” therefore reflects the absence of any immediate catalyst for him to exit the race before the summer deadline.