Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate a shift to northerly flow over northern France by August 22, 2026, favoring overnight lows near 12–13°C in Paris as cooler maritime air replaces the prior heat dome. This setup promotes enhanced radiative cooling under partly clear skies and light winds, lowering minimum temperatures below the late-August climatological average of 14–15°C. Key variables differentiating the tightly bunched 11–13°C outcomes include boundary-layer moisture, exact cloud timing, and urban heat-island effects, with small model discrepancies in 2-meter temperature fields driving the market spread. New high-resolution runs and Météo-France updates expected within 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Paris no dia 22 de agosto?
Temperatura mais baixa em Paris no dia 22 de agosto?
11°C 51%
12°C 27%
13°C 26%
10°C 18%
NOVO
NOVO
22 ago 2026
9°C ou menos
9%
10°C
18%
11°C
51%
12°C
27%
13°C
26%
14°C
9%
15°C
6%
16°C
7%
17°C
5%
18°C
5%
19°C ou mais
4%
11°C 51%
12°C 27%
13°C 26%
10°C 18%
NOVO
NOVO
22 ago 2026
9°C ou menos
$0 Vol.
9%
10°C
$0 Vol.
18%
11°C
$0 Vol.
51%
12°C
$0 Vol.
27%
13°C
$0 Vol.
26%
14°C
$0 Vol.
9%
15°C
$235 Vol.
6%
16°C
$0 Vol.
7%
17°C
$0 Vol.
5%
18°C
$0 Vol.
5%
19°C ou mais
$0 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate a shift to northerly flow over northern France by August 22, 2026, favoring overnight lows near 12–13°C in Paris as cooler maritime air replaces the prior heat dome. This setup promotes enhanced radiative cooling under partly clear skies and light winds, lowering minimum temperatures below the late-August climatological average of 14–15°C. Key variables differentiating the tightly bunched 11–13°C outcomes include boundary-layer moisture, exact cloud timing, and urban heat-island effects, with small model discrepancies in 2-meter temperature fields driving the market spread. New high-resolution runs and Météo-France updates expected within 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 20, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$235Data de Término
22 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 12:28 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate a shift to northerly flow over northern France by August 22, 2026, favoring overnight lows near 12–13°C in Paris as cooler maritime air replaces the prior heat dome. This setup promotes enhanced radiative cooling under partly clear skies and light winds, lowering minimum temperatures below the late-August climatological average of 14–15°C. Key variables differentiating the tightly bunched 11–13°C outcomes include boundary-layer moisture, exact cloud timing, and urban heat-island effects, with small model discrepancies in 2-meter temperature fields driving the market spread. New high-resolution runs and Météo-France updates expected within 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$235Data de Término
22 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 12:28 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate a shift to northerly flow over northern France by August 22, 2026, favoring overnight lows near 12–13°C in Paris as cooler maritime air replaces the prior heat dome. This setup promotes enhanced radiative cooling under partly clear skies and light winds, lowering minimum temperatures below the late-August climatological average of 14–15°C. Key variables differentiating the tightly bunched 11–13°C outcomes include boundary-layer moisture, exact cloud timing, and urban heat-island effects, with small model discrepancies in 2-meter temperature fields driving the market spread. New high-resolution runs and Météo-France updates expected within 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions