**The ongoing deadlock in the Peace Implementation Council Steering Board over a permanent successor to Christian Schmidt, who resigned effective July 1, 2026, has positioned “No HR in 2026” as the clear market leader.** Schmidt’s early departure followed U.S. pressure, after which ambassadors appointed Principal Deputy High Representative Louis J. Crishock as Acting High Representative to maintain continuity under Annex 10 of the Dayton Agreement and the Bonn Powers. Transatlantic divisions—primarily U.S. and Italian support for Antonio Zanardi Landi versus backing from several EU states and the UK for René Troccaz, with compromise names such as Maurizio Massari and Peter Sørensen floated—prevented consensus by the missed July 14 target. Subsequent PIC statements and reporting through August have signaled no breakthrough, while U.S. statements on potentially reconsidering its role in the OHR have reinforced trader expectations that the permanent post may remain unfilled through year-end.