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Política·Prémios

Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026

icon for Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026
Política·Prémios

Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026

Donald Trump 10%

Yulia Navalnaya 8%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 6.2%

UNRWA 5.1%

Polymarket

$17,668,943 Vol.

Donald Trump 10%

Yulia Navalnaya 8%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 6.2%

UNRWA 5.1%

Polymarket

$17,668,943 Vol.

icon for Donald Trump

Donald Trump

$3,373,916 Vol.

10%

icon for Yulia Navalnaya

Yulia Navalnaya

$157,395 Vol.

8%

icon for Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

$499,739 Vol.

6%

icon for UNRWA

UNRWA

$1,945,851 Vol.

5%

icon for Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

$611,080 Vol.

4%

icon for Papa Leão XIV

Papa Leão XIV

$698,872 Vol.

3%

icon for Tribunal Internacional de Justiça

Tribunal Internacional de Justiça

$760,387 Vol.

2%

icon for Narendra Modi

Narendra Modi

$544,546 Vol.

2%

icon for Xi Jinping

Xi Jinping

$1,141,239 Vol.

1%

icon for Greta Thunberg

Greta Thunberg

$1,195,945 Vol.

1%

icon for Charlie Kirk

Charlie Kirk

$907,116 Vol.

1%

icon for Ahmed al-Sharaa

Ahmed al-Sharaa

$951,394 Vol.

1%

icon for António Guterres

António Guterres

$420,434 Vol.

1%

icon for Khaled Mashal

Khaled Mashal

$453,609 Vol.

1%

icon for Mohammed bin Salman

Mohammed bin Salman

$816,867 Vol.

1%

icon for Julian Assange

Julian Assange

$502,551 Vol.

1%

icon for Vladimir Putin

Vladimir Putin

$744,932 Vol.

1%

icon for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

$713,837 Vol.

1%

icon for Elon Musk

Elon Musk

$732,867 Vol.

<1%

icon for Benjamin Netanyahu

Benjamin Netanyahu

$496,777 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.The recent public disclosure of 287 nominees for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has kept the field unusually wide open, with Donald Trump holding a slim market lead at 9.5% amid diplomatic mentions from regional leaders. Yulia Navalnaya and Volodymyr Zelenskyy follow closely at 7.5% and 6.2%, reflecting trader focus on human-rights advocacy and conflict-resolution efforts amid persistent global tensions. Organizations such as UNRWA and the International Court of Justice add further fragmentation, consistent with the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s history of selecting collective or surprise recipients when individual campaigns lack decisive momentum. With the October 9 announcement still months away, any breakthrough in peace talks or high-profile advocacy developments could quickly reshape these evenly matched odds.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Volume
$17,668,943
Data de Término
10 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.The recent public disclosure of 287 nominees for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has kept the field unusually wide open, with Donald Trump holding a slim market lead at 9.5% amid diplomatic mentions from regional leaders. Yulia Navalnaya and Volodymyr Zelenskyy follow closely at 7.5% and 6.2%, reflecting trader focus on human-rights advocacy and conflict-resolution efforts amid persistent global tensions. Organizations such as UNRWA and the International Court of Justice add further fragmentation, consistent with the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s history of selecting collective or surprise recipients when individual campaigns lack decisive momentum. With the October 9 announcement still months away, any breakthrough in peace talks or high-profile advocacy developments could quickly reshape these evenly matched odds.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Volume
$17,668,943
Data de Término
10 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Donald Trump" at 10%, followed by "Yulia Navalnaya" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 10¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026" has generated $17.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026" is "Donald Trump" at 10%, meaning the market assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Yulia Navalnaya" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.