**Traders assign a 92% probability to "Nothing" in the June "Nothing Ever Happens" market because ongoing de-escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict has reduced the immediate risk of major escalation or new hostilities through the end of the month.** Recent reports indicate that President Trump and Iranian officials view a deal to end fighting as close, with strikes called off amid advancing negotiations and statements that text is largely finalized. This diplomatic momentum, alongside routine scheduled events such as the G7 Leaders Summit and several national or local elections, has not produced unexpected disruptions or crises capable of shifting the resolution criteria. The market's pricing reflects trader consensus that these developments, rather than new escalations or unforeseen shocks, will define the period.