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icon for Parlay de Elon Bull Run

Parlay de Elon Bull Run

icon for Parlay de Elon Bull Run

Parlay de Elon Bull Run

5% chance
Polymarket

$10,235 Vol.

5% chance
Polymarket

$10,235 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Elon Musk trillionaire - Another Elon baby - 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Bull Run Parlay overwhelmingly favors "No" at 94.3% implied probability, reflecting skepticism that all three 2026 conditions— Elon Musk reaching $1 trillion net worth per Bloomberg Billionaires Index, confirming a 15th child, and SpaceX achieving nine or more Starship launches to 62-mile altitude—will occur. With Musk's fortune around $700 billion amid Tesla shares hovering near $400 and subdued robotaxi progress, plus SpaceX-xAI merger valuations at $1.25 trillion yet insufficient for trillionaire status, the wealth milestone appears insurmountable in seven months. No new baby announcements have surfaced, and zero Starship successes year-to-date precede Flight 12 on May 19. While aggressive SpaceX cadence or explosive AI/space valuations could challenge this, execution risks reinforce the skin-in-the-game verdict.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
Volume
$10,235
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Elon Musk trillionaire - Another Elon baby - 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Elon Musk trillionaire - Another Elon baby - 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Bull Run Parlay overwhelmingly favors "No" at 94.3% implied probability, reflecting skepticism that all three 2026 conditions— Elon Musk reaching $1 trillion net worth per Bloomberg Billionaires Index, confirming a 15th child, and SpaceX achieving nine or more Starship launches to 62-mile altitude—will occur. With Musk's fortune around $700 billion amid Tesla shares hovering near $400 and subdued robotaxi progress, plus SpaceX-xAI merger valuations at $1.25 trillion yet insufficient for trillionaire status, the wealth milestone appears insurmountable in seven months. No new baby announcements have surfaced, and zero Starship successes year-to-date precede Flight 12 on May 19. While aggressive SpaceX cadence or explosive AI/space valuations could challenge this, execution risks reinforce the skin-in-the-game verdict.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
Volume
$10,235
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Elon Musk trillionaire - Another Elon baby - 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Parlay de Elon Bull Run" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 5% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 5¢, the market collectively assigns a 5% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Parlay de Elon Bull Run" has generated $10.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Parlay de Elon Bull Run," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Parlay de Elon Bull Run" is 5% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 5% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Parlay de Elon Bull Run" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.