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Nothing Ever Happens: May

icon for Nothing Ever Happens: May

Nothing Ever Happens: May

Nada

86% chance
Polymarket

$84,793 Vol.

Nada

86% chance
Polymarket

$84,793 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - US x Iran permanent peace deal - Iran leadership change - WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150 - US military action against Cuba - US confirms that aliens exist - Russia invades a NATO country Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdfMidway through May 2026, Polymarket traders price "Nothing" at 84.5% implied probability for this geopolitics parlay, reflecting the absence of triggering events amid sustained global stability. No US-Iran permanent peace deal has emerged, with bilateral diplomacy stalled and Tehran rejecting proposals over the past week; Iranian leadership remains unchanged without official succession announcements from Supreme Leader Khamenei; WTI crude oil hovers well below $150 per barrel despite routine Middle East tensions; Russia sustains focus on Ukraine absent NATO incursions or invasions. Far-fetched scenarios like US military action against Cuba or official alien confirmations lack credible developments. With high barriers to these tail risks and no major summits or escalations scheduled before May 31 resolution, trader consensus anticipates continuity.

This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
Volume
$84,793
Data de Término
31 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:14 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - US x Iran permanent peace deal - Iran leadership change - WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150 - US military action against Cuba - US confirms that aliens exist - Russia invades a NATO country Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - US x Iran permanent peace deal - Iran leadership change - WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150 - US military action against Cuba - US confirms that aliens exist - Russia invades a NATO country Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdfMidway through May 2026, Polymarket traders price "Nothing" at 84.5% implied probability for this geopolitics parlay, reflecting the absence of triggering events amid sustained global stability. No US-Iran permanent peace deal has emerged, with bilateral diplomacy stalled and Tehran rejecting proposals over the past week; Iranian leadership remains unchanged without official succession announcements from Supreme Leader Khamenei; WTI crude oil hovers well below $150 per barrel despite routine Middle East tensions; Russia sustains focus on Ukraine absent NATO incursions or invasions. Far-fetched scenarios like US military action against Cuba or official alien confirmations lack credible developments. With high barriers to these tail risks and no major summits or escalations scheduled before May 31 resolution, trader consensus anticipates continuity.

This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
Volume
$84,793
Data de Término
31 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:14 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - US x Iran permanent peace deal - Iran leadership change - WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150 - US military action against Cuba - US confirms that aliens exist - Russia invades a NATO country Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Nothing Ever Happens: May" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Nada Acontece Nunca: Maio" at 86%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 86¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Nothing Ever Happens: May" has generated $84.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Nothing Ever Happens: May," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Nothing Ever Happens: May" is "Nada Acontece Nunca: Maio" at 86%, meaning the market assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Nothing Ever Happens: May" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.