Midway through May 2026, Polymarket traders price "Nothing" at 84.5% implied probability for this geopolitics parlay, reflecting the absence of triggering events amid sustained global stability. No US-Iran permanent peace deal has emerged, with bilateral diplomacy stalled and Tehran rejecting proposals over the past week; Iranian leadership remains unchanged without official succession announcements from Supreme Leader Khamenei; WTI crude oil hovers well below $150 per barrel despite routine Middle East tensions; Russia sustains focus on Ukraine absent NATO incursions or invasions. Far-fetched scenarios like US military action against Cuba or official alien confirmations lack credible developments. With high barriers to these tail risks and no major summits or escalations scheduled before May 31 resolution, trader consensus anticipates continuity.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNothing Ever Happens: May
Nothing Ever Happens: May
Nada
$84,793 Vol.
$84,793 Vol.
Nada
$84,793 Vol.
$84,793 Vol.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
Mercado Aberto: Apr 30, 2026, 3:14 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Midway through May 2026, Polymarket traders price "Nothing" at 84.5% implied probability for this geopolitics parlay, reflecting the absence of triggering events amid sustained global stability. No US-Iran permanent peace deal has emerged, with bilateral diplomacy stalled and Tehran rejecting proposals over the past week; Iranian leadership remains unchanged without official succession announcements from Supreme Leader Khamenei; WTI crude oil hovers well below $150 per barrel despite routine Middle East tensions; Russia sustains focus on Ukraine absent NATO incursions or invasions. Far-fetched scenarios like US military action against Cuba or official alien confirmations lack credible developments. With high barriers to these tail risks and no major summits or escalations scheduled before May 31 resolution, trader consensus anticipates continuity.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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