The closely matched trader prices across turnout bins for South Carolina's November 3, 2026 Senate election reflect uncertainty over voter participation in a solidly Republican contest. Recent polling shows the GOP nominee—emerging from the August 11 special primary and August 25 runoff after Lindsey Graham's death—holding a substantial lead over Democratic nominee Annie Andrews, which typically dampens overall engagement compared to more competitive races. Key variables include base mobilization on the Republican side, modest Democratic turnout in urban and coastal areas, and standard midterm patterns where participation often falls between presidential-year highs and off-year lows. Historical South Carolina general election totals provide the baseline, while factors such as early voting access, campaign spending, and any late shifts in enthusiasm could separate the leading 1.8M-2M and 2.2M+ ranges from lower options.