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Geopolítica·Trump

EUA acusa federalmente o ex-líder cubano Raúl Castro?

icon for EUA acusa federalmente o ex-líder cubano Raúl Castro?
Geopolítica·Trump

EUA acusa federalmente o ex-líder cubano Raúl Castro?

Sim

26% chance
Polymarket

$81,706 Vol.

Sim

26% chance
Polymarket

$81,706 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of former First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Raul Castro between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 74.5% for U.S. federal charges against former Cuban leader Raul Castro by June 30, reflecting the lack of any formal DOJ indictment despite heightened pressure earlier this year. Cuban-American lawmakers, including Reps. Salazar, Díaz-Balart, Giménez, and Malliotakis, urged the Trump administration in February to prosecute Castro over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown that killed four. Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier reopened a state-level investigation in early March, while Miami's top federal prosecutor initiated preliminary inquiries into Cuban officials. Absent announcements from DOJ or federal courts since then, jurisdictional challenges, Castro's age (94) and location in Cuba, and diplomatic frictions sustain skepticism on imminent action.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of former First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Raul Castro between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$81,706
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 9, 2026, 5:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of former First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Raul Castro between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of former First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Raul Castro between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 74.5% for U.S. federal charges against former Cuban leader Raul Castro by June 30, reflecting the lack of any formal DOJ indictment despite heightened pressure earlier this year. Cuban-American lawmakers, including Reps. Salazar, Díaz-Balart, Giménez, and Malliotakis, urged the Trump administration in February to prosecute Castro over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown that killed four. Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier reopened a state-level investigation in early March, while Miami's top federal prosecutor initiated preliminary inquiries into Cuban officials. Absent announcements from DOJ or federal courts since then, jurisdictional challenges, Castro's age (94) and location in Cuba, and diplomatic frictions sustain skepticism on imminent action.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of former First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Raul Castro between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$81,706
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 9, 2026, 5:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of former First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Raul Castro between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"EUA acusa federalmente o ex-líder cubano Raúl Castro?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Os EUA acusam formalmente o ex-líder de Cuba Raul Castro?" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 26¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "EUA acusa federalmente o ex-líder cubano Raúl Castro?" has generated $81.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "EUA acusa federalmente o ex-líder cubano Raúl Castro?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "EUA acusa federalmente o ex-líder cubano Raúl Castro?" is "Os EUA acusam formalmente o ex-líder de Cuba Raul Castro?" at 26%, meaning the market assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "EUA acusa federalmente o ex-líder cubano Raúl Castro?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.